237 days. 251 days. 1,316 days. 1,686 days. 2,050 days. 4,586 days. 15,931 days. 16,659 days.

Are lyrics from "Seasons of Love" from Rent a bit off-base for opening a season preview? Not for anyone who endured last season with the Big-Red hockey team. Devoted fans, much like lyricist Jonathan Larson, found themselves engaged in a pleading, frantic search for valuation of the priceless and worthless in last season. Oh, yes, there were moments that will live long in the memory of this contributor as they will in the memories of the Faithful who witnessed them. Then, there are the moments that cause us to stir at night and comb through a calendar yearning for this new season.
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Fittingly, the tradition of Cornell hockey is rent, torn in tatters, lying somewhere as a fallen banner in the dark recesses of Lynah Rink. Last season did end in Puccinian melancholy. None of this is new to the current team. With great maturity and humility, the coaches and team have acknowledged this off-putting reality. They accept its challenges. Now. The past is the past. 

The line of figures atop this piece gives dimension to how long the Lynah Faithful and alumni of this proud program have been waiting for various benchmarks of success. Among those figures are the number of days that will have passed by October 30 since the Red's last game of consequence, last meaningful win at Lynah Rink, and last time hoisting the Whitelaw Cup. Careful readers can discern the other benchmarks on that list. They will measure a season of the program. Only one of those dials is guaranteed to zero this weekend. No others are certain to change this season.

This team will decide exactly how many of those figures truncates. This writer will say that the composition of this team has the potential to reduce all of those figures to the minuscule. Last season colors this prognosticator's daring in doing so. A piece on Where Angels Fear to Tread quipped last season that "potential" might as well be a four-letter word for its frequent effect on fans. We endured how last season resolved. Tepidity mitigates any hope that this writer may engender in the fanbases and readers based upon personal observation.

No more will be said of the ultimate potential of this team until concrete results warrant it. In this regard, this contributor hopes to resemble the approach of Coach Schafer. Much like Schafer has demanded of his team, every inch of leeway, every moment of ice time, and every modicum of respect must be earned, Where Angels Fear to Tread will avoid premature optimism. The burden of proof rests squarely with this team.

​This piece doubly could have been entitled "dazed" for the state in which the Faithful were left at the end of last season. This team has the chance to give direction to this cloud of disorientation this weekend and in the following weeks.

The mood around the Cornell hockey program certainly changed in the offseason. There is little of the quiet hubris that the program has known since 2012. There is a chip on the program's shoulder. There is anger. There is ambition. There is focus.

In this way, Cornell is finally acting a bit more Cornellian. Gone are the presumptions of greatness, but Cornell is no less great. It does not need to act great, it needs to be great. Cornell University is about hard work. The greats of Cornell hockey reflected this in their play, demeanor, and backgrounds. Hailing from the industrial Rust Belt of the United States to the prairies of rural Canada, the wearers of the carnelian-and-white sweater have played as a team and with an edge as can only the students of a university that christened itself America's Oxford despite being 229 years the junior of North America's oldest university. The war heroes of the 1911 team, the bonds of blood and toil of the 1967 team, or the galvanizing of college hockey's greatest assemblages of players in the 1970 team share valuing team and the University above all else.

The leaders of the 2015-16 team and its coaches promise that this soul of Cornell hockey has returned after a hiatus too long. This writer joins the Lynah Faithful in hoping that this is not a hollow talking point. It is worth noting that nothing has created any doubts about this. Last season shows that disappointment creeps into a season even when it is least it expected. Measured optimism with a healthy skeptical eye is the prescription for this writer. The Lynah Faithful can elect to follow their own courses of approach in watching the early moments of the season unfold.

Supplanting hubris with angry hunger is the obvious tonal change this season. There are other changes. Anyone who listened to Schafer in his post-game interviews after both exhibition contests noticed that the Red strategist is invoking a new strategy. The defensive system will remain that same. It is the offense that will change.

Yes, I said change. Last season, Coach Schafer in disappointment after the Union series said that he would return to how he had done things for years. It appears that the bench boss may have re-evaluated and elected for a new heading. The Lynah Faithful should welcome this tack. Any arguments purporting his current offensive philosophy is a return to a previous system seem amiss to the opinions of most journalists who have covered college hockey for years more than has this writer, including Adam Wodon of College Hockey News, and this contributor.

The most recent Schaferian approach to generating offense, the one that most observers claim has experienced only minor changes over the first two decades of the legendary defenseman's career, is one that relied upon taking only the high-probability shots. In the Frozen Apple 2014, Adam Wodon saw Guy Gadowsky's no-shot-left-untaken and Mike Schafer's high-probability systems as nearly perfect foils. Fans knew that Schafer believed that a team could win regularly on one well positioned shot, shot-blocking, and superb goaltending. Something new is afoot in ECAC Hockey's infamous house of horrors.

Coach Schafer has placed an emphasis on shooting. Often. He wants players at every position to put the puck on net when they have the opportunity to do so. You do not think he is serious? Well, consider that in his two post-game interviews after the Big Red's last tune-ups, Schafer referenced his team's need to shoot frequently nearly once a minute (0.92 times per minute) over the course of more than 13 minutes. To put this another way, in emphasizing a point, Schafer said that he wanted his team to shoot more far more than twice as often as his team actually shot last season.

Schafer is serious on this point. He threatened players with less playing time if they did not "shoot the puck." "We have to have a shooting mentality," summarized the five-time Whitelaw Cup champion coach. This departure is welcome.

It is especially welcome one season after offensive anemia resulted in certain disaster. Many factors may place a lower-than-desired ceiling on this Cornell team's offensive production. None of them will be the loss of last year's senior class as journalists and commentators insist. One thing needs to be made clear: Last season's seniors were not ​last season's seniors. They did not have the senior seasons that the Lynah Faithful should have been afforded the opportunity of expecting.

Nothing else needs to be said. Their legacies will be decided at a later time. Their offensive contributions last season were afflicted with whatever scoring ailment doomed the Red last season. In many ways, the seniors were more afflicted. Cornell returns three of its top four goal scorers. The Big Red can expect the services of six of its top ten contributors in terms of goals per game production last season.

This topic is exhausted. Where Angels Fear to Tread expounds on from where Cornell can expect scoring and at which rate the team should produce in a four-part series from the offseason. The data therein becomes moot at 7:00 pm on Friday.

Discussions of last season's scoring problems are hereby closed.

The team will be consolidated into a working whole if all goes according to plan. This should not preclude discussing the individual talents that should work within that whole. Injuries were the undiscussed topic of late last season. Many of the returning players were partially or wholly incapacitated at some point last season.

It seemed but moments after Patrick McCarron sank an extra-attacker goal against Princeton that rumors of injuries to the offensively talented defenseman began to swirl. These came mere days after Joakim Ryan was removed from the line-up due to an injury sustained in the Nebraska-Omaha series. McCarron had two points in three games up until that point. Reece Willcox rose to the challenge and began to fill an offensive void along the back end. The often slightly more defensive defenseman Willcox tallied four points in 10 games at one point. A late-season injury prevented the junior defenseman's participation in a single shift during the playoffs.

Both McCarron and Willcox were ready to play expected and new roles, respectively. This season they will have the chance to start afresh and take all elements of their game to opponents. They will not be alone.

Yale may have Rob O'Gara and Ryan Obuchowski. St. Lawrence has Gavin Bayreuther and Eric Sweetman. Neither will have the most versatile corps of defensemen in ECAC Hockey. The two-way talents of the Big Red go beyond McCarron and Willcox. Newcomers Alec McCrea and Matt Nuttle both suit up with expectations of offensive contribution. The former has incredible vision on the ice while Schafer dubbed the latter an all-around scoring threat. When Brendan Smith recovers from an injury that befell him before arriving in Ithaca, his ability to move the puck in all zones and into the net will make the Red blue line even more fearsome.

Holden Anderson ever-seems on the cusp of breaking out with the scoring flash from his career in Hawkesbury. His shots are well positioned in time and space. Dan Wedman, well, Wedman is Wedman. He became quietly the league's best defensive defenseman last season. This may not get him acclaim in some hockey towns, but Ithaca values a few frills, even fewer mistakes defenseman. This overlooks the defenseman who should be poised to make the most journalistic hay.

Ryan Bliss dazzled offensively on a team dinted with scoring woes of every variety. The freshman led the blue line in goals scored per game. His two goals on the season temper bold predictions. If a rising tide raises all ships, then Bliss should improve his offensive output if the team as a whole improves dramatically. Bliss skates with the fluidity of a forward and represents with McCarron the player most likely to fill a vacant historical position in the Cornell arsenal. ECAC Hockey observers will find themselves asking who Rob O'Gara is if Bliss has the sophomore campaign that he can.

Balanced scoring from front to back requires the traditional source of goals, forwards, to contribute as well. The last use of this contributor's model will predict which forwards are expected to have big seasons. Predictably, top goal scorers Matt Buckles and Christian Hilbrich are expected to fuel the Red's offensive resurgence. Given average improvements for their respective years and performances last season, the two should combine for 25 goals in the regular season. Not to ratchet up demands too high, I will allow them to decide the division of that total throughout the season.

John Knisley melted the ice in Europe last summer with his offensive game's white-hot heat. An injury, fitting with the narrative of the season, set his offensive game back from what it was on the Big Red's European tour. The Pittsford native has one last run in the carnelian-and-white sweater. He has been a solid player for three seasons. The chance of living up to the legacy of another famous Western New Yorker, Sam Paolini, attracted Knisley to New York's land-grant university. Knisley still has more than an opportunity to bring those dreams to reality. Paolini is immortal for one (okay, maybe two) goals. If Knisley has a great senior campaign, he can give Cornell the stage to have a similar moment and then guarantee history.

Little weight can be given to exhibition contests. Too often players or teams have tremendous preseason or exhibition slates then implode in the regular season. Jeff Kubiak is determined not to have that happen to him. Kubiak returns with a vigor to play on every inch of the ice. His doing the little things well has improved his scoring statistics. The Lynah Faithful hope to see his considerable progress continue when the points count for real.

One thing that probably can be deduced from the Red's exhibition games is that the freshmen are ready for the Red to roll. Freshmen scored five goals and eight points over the course of the two tune-up contests. Four of the six freshmen who rotated into those games tallied at least one point.

Anthony Angello, honoring the sweater of "score monger" Doug Derraugh, found the right chord in a tune-up. Angello scored four goals. A feat that if accomplished in a game of consequence would have been the first time a Cornellian scored that many goals in a game in nearly a quarter of a century (24.8 years). Even Derraugh never scored four goals in one game for the Big Red. Hopes are running high. They need to be reified in the regular season.

Dwyer Tschantz played in neither exhibition contest. It was revealed during the offseason that Tschantz played most, if not all, of last season injured which explained his sporadic inclusion in the line-up. The highly touted freshman from last season tied for the scoring lead among freshmen and did so in 12 fewer games. His 0.11 goals per game paced him as the seventh-most productive in-game player on Cornell's team last season. His multifaceted physical and scoring game would be an asset to the more honest, physical, and shooting-oriented system put in place this season. It would be great to see what a healthy Tschantz season in a carnelian-and-white sweater would look like.

This piece opened with the lyrics from "Seasons of Love." The song was released in the Fall of 1996 and penned during the course of time shortly before that date. In other words, its writing and release directly overlay the arrival of Schafer in 1995 and his team's build-up to a successful Whitelaw Cup defense in the 1996-97 season.

The song is a throwback to the beginning of the era when Schafer believed his coaching skills were at their zenith. He promises that they have soared again. Time will tell. Until confirmation of the accuracy of Schafer's promise, the measures atop this piece will quantify the lingering dissatisfaction of the Lynah Faithful. One measure matters most now.

170 miles.

The distance between Ithaca and Lewiston. Dwyer Arena and Lynah Rink are the extrema of this season's opening weekend. The Purple Eagles made one thing certain last weekend. The results of one night do not foretell the results the next evening. Niagara was obliterated in one contest against Derek Schooley's Colonials. The Purple Eagles tied the other contest. Niagara will not quit. This Atlantic-Hockey team will be a good opening test of the professed returned work ethic of Cornell.

Travel the distance. It will be cathartic to travel to the land of some of Cornell's greatest players. Go there to see Cornell visit Niagara in Dwyer Arena. The trip will provide you an opportunity. We will see how far that this team has come.

For all the commotion that has plagued East Hill during the offseason and this preseason, very little of it focused on the women's side of Lynah Rink. While the men's program has been riddled with questions about everything ranging from scoring ability to relevance, the women's program largely has been enveloped in a silence manifesting a quiet confidence. The contributors of Where Angels Fear to Tread have been complicit in this distinction.

The build-up to the season for the men has seen a multipart series attempt to grasp where the men's program will be when the season begins. The women's program has been accompanied with promotion of the upcoming contest but few critical assessments thus far from this corner. Why the disparity? 

The men's program ended last season in a pride-reducing sweeping at home. The Lady Rouge appeared last season in the ECAC Hockey Championship Final for the sixth consecutive time. Yes, Harvard did get the best of them. But, hey, it is not a rivalry in the academic sense if the Big Red does not take its lumps occasionally. One could say that with victories in the last three postseason meetings with the Crimson, Cornell might have been due for a loss to a quality program that was having a particularly potent season. Trust me, the loss hurt and no member of the Lynah Faithful deserving of the name, least of all this writer, accepts a loss to Harvard as a given, but it was understandable. The carnelian and white ended the season in a battling loss to the eventual national f̶i̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶l̶o̶s̶e̶r̶ ̶(̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶n̶a̶t̶u̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶s̶t̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶H̶a̶r̶v̶a̶r̶d̶i̶a̶n̶s̶) runner-up.

The end of last season for Cornell was not one that the Lynah Faithul accepted. It was nonetheless an ending that still made the Rouge's fanbase and the University proud. This writer doled out some rare criticism last season when Cornell was faltering. Cornellians expect greatness of its hockey program. Robust contention for a national championship always should be the goal of Derraugh's team and expectation of the Lynah Faithful.

The women answered this contributor's challenge and more than rose to the challenge in the playoffs with a triumphantly dauntless run to a sixth consecutive ECAC Hockey Championship Final. The Red set a record in so doing. No program since the first ECAC Hockey tournament in 1984 ever has proven to be more consistently among the two most elite programs in the conference. More important than breaking a record, the Lady Rouge on the ice of Cheel Arena demonstrated the work ethic and tenacity that fans of Cornell hockey and Cornellians expect of their teams. That is why last season's heart-wrenching loss to the Crimson was not an entire disappointment (so long as the program promises it won't happen again for a long time).

It is this pride and tenacious surge that erased all earlier doubts which dwarf the large task before this carnelian-and-white edition. Lost to graduation were Emily Fulton, Brianne Jenner, and Jill Saulnier. The careers of those three players will endure the test of time like those of scoring predecessors like Cyndy Schlaepfer, Digit Degidio, Diane Dillon, Missy Gambrell, and Rebecca Johnston have. Fulton, Jenner, and Saulnier created magic on the ice, whether they were on it individually, paired, or collectively. They are special players. Their simultaneous departure leaves unquestionable holes in the Red's offense.

Why is this writer not entirely alarmed? The playoff run was the highlight of last season. The scorers of 41.7% of all of the Red's playoff goals return. The talliers of more than 40% of last season's playoff points return as well. One quarter of all goals that the Big Red scored in the most important portion of the season did not enjoy a senior factoring in scoring. Those totals are not as confidence-inspiring as one would hope for an easy road. One certain thing from last season is that this season's team and this program does not like to do things the easy way. It prefers to play with grit and a chip lightened by hard work.

The 2015-16 team has the combination of character and talent to make such an attitude of a team work. Doug Derraugh, who possesses a knack for recognizing scoring touches (as one of the all-time greatest goal scorers in Cornell hockey history), places the buck at the skates of three players in particular to fill box scores where offensive tallies are missing from the Red's departures. Hanna Bunton is the player whom Derraugh has identified most pointedly.

The four-time ECAC Hockey Champion coach thinks that Bunton "will be key for [Cornell] up front" and is poised "to step into some of the roles of the seniors that left." The Belleville native proved that her readiness matched her potential last season during the closing stretch of last season. Injury did nothing to slow Bunton down in her late-season return. In the closing ten games of the season, Bunton produced 0.30 goals per game. Her playoff form was most impressive as that figure ratcheted up (as does the zealotry of all Cornellians) to 0.50 goals per game. Hanna Bunton scored the Red's ultimate goal of the season against one of the best teams in the nation against the nation's most formidable goaltender. Derraugh and this writer believe that she is ready to pick up this season where she ended last season.

Jess Brown is one of the other two players whose essence he believes will drive the chemistry of this season's team. Somewhat quietly below the surface, largely due to playing on a team with stars of already known national repute, last season saw Jess Brown become one of the best offensive players in the nation. Lekika (if you prefer) always has provided a boost and energy to the team. She blocks shots. She appears fearless in doing the little things with a Corsi number that would be astronomical if one calculated it. But, last season, only the gaudy numbers of Fulton, Jenner, and Saulnier could overshadow her goal-scoring and finishing touch. When the passionate skater from Cleveland returns to the line-up, she will be ready to fill whichever niche that Derraugh or the team needs as she always has been.

​The other element of a cadre to which Cornell may turn for some senior scoring is Anna Zorn. Zorn only tallied twice last season. However, much like Bunton, her return from injury saw her renewed. The Rochester forward scored only twice but she chose her moments expertly. Any forward who has the flash to choose moments with the precision that Zorn did last season deserves a large vote of confidence. The then-junior forward tallied 0.33 goals per game upon her return from injury. One of those tallies was a game winner. The other? The now-immortal conversion of a blocked shot into a lone breakaway that began the rally that catapulted Zorn's team all the way to the North Country.

The leadership of this team in the hands of Cassandra Poudrier will be able to "weather every rack." The Francophonic defenseman will lead by example as she has in the past as a steady constant on the blue line. However, in her, the Lynah Faithful have begun to see a germ of more a confident, vocal leadership. She will be more than ready to let loose several vites to goad her team out of any languors in which it finds itself. At the end of the season, the defenseman who makes Golden Knights clatter their gilded vestments is capable of making sure that "the prize we sought is won."

Cassandra Poudrier will contribute in more concrete terms. Her (currently) most famous goal may be the one that gave the Big Red its fourth ECAC Hockey championship in 2014. It may find rivals this season. Exhibitions are often a poor predictor of success. However, Poudrier's shot from the point has shown improvement in its precision rendering it laser-like in this preseason with no loss of its always dependable canon-like qualities.

Stefannie Moak emblematically as the heart of the Cornell teams on which she has been a member will wear a letter above her heart. The Red's currently lone Nova Scotian provides a crucial locker-room presence. This role she has within the team inspires those around her to perform beyond what even they can expect when she takes the ice between the pipes.

The wearer of the other letter is someone whose work ethic and selflessness should floor all of the Lynah Faithful. Taylor Woods proved last season to be one of the most versatile players in the history of the program. Woods saw time as a defenseman and a forward when needed. No matter the position that she filled in a given game, her performances showed no downturns and rivaled those of the best at any position in college hockey.

The two Chicagoans who patrol the blue line will be two to watch for very different reasons. Sydnee Saracco suited up for her first contest in the carnelian-and-white sweater. Injury kept the sophomore defenseman in the bleachers during the 2014-15 season. She seems to have lost very little, if any, of her game. Her development over the course of the season will be exciting to watch. The evolution of her role on the team may prove crucial to the Lady Rouge's success. Now, Erin O'Connor, the best freshman player in college hockey to return for a second campaign, seems to have slid easily from a role as a freshman defender learning systems and gaining confidence to her new position as possible mentor to promising freshman Micah Hart.

As all members of the Faithful know, Doug Derraugh has his roster replete with netminding talent even beyond Moak. No matter one's opinions on the Keystone Pipeline, one can agree that the possible detour of Amanda Mazzotta's pipeline flowing goaltending talent to East Hill will be missed dearly. Derraugh seemed to have stockpiled all able netminders before the trickle dried. Any one of Cornell's other three goaltenders would be viable starters at any other program.

Marlene Boissonnault and Amelia Boughn have the hallmarks of what one would expect of Mazzotta-approved and -coached goaltenders. Paula Voorheis is the anticipated mainstay, starting goaltender despite a goaltending talent-flush roster. Big Paula earned the right of this assumption. When Cornell found little offensive inertia, Paula held a pointed attack from the Saints of St. Lawrence at bay until the Red could muster a response. The now-junior goaltender registered a 0.944 save percentage in the second game of the 2015 ECAC Hockey tournament. This coupled with 0.945 save percentage during the opening round of last season's playoffs shows that Voorheis is ready to deliver big-game performances when the Lady Rouge need them.

Last season opened with Boston College. This season the Eagles come to Lynah Rink. The Bostonians have not ventured outside of Chestnut Hill in the season's three weeks of competition for non-Ivy League programs. In the first game last season, the Big Red deserved clearly its fate. Cornell deserved a fate far better for its effort than it received in the second contest. The second game witnessed two teams that were matched fairly evenly throughout most of the contest.

This Cornell team will need to improve upon that moral victory of playing a slightly better second game against Boston College last season. This season it should be different. The Lady Rouge enjoy the best playoff environment in college hockey. These contests against Boston College almost certainly will have playoff repercussions for both teams. The Lynah Faithful need to bring a playoff atmosphere to our sanctuary on Friday evening at 7:00 pm.

The crowd and environment can play a decisive role in claiming victory over Boston College. Don Vaughan remarked in 1996 on Lynah Rink's playoff crowds as "be[ing] good for three or four [goals]." If the Lynah Faithful bring the full force of their volksgeist to bear on the Eagles, even the lopsided contests of last season at Conte Forum would have been even. Derraugh's team seems ready to seize the moment if the Faithful set the stage. 

Outsiders affix modest expectations to this season's team. Another team not too long ago entered a season with lower expectations. That team even counted a senior Zorn as a member. It was battle-tested throughout a tough out-of-conference schedule which prepared it for five of seven postseason contests that the tally of one goal decided. The team was much more of character and work ethic than it was absolute talent. That team ended in the pinnacle contest of the season on March 21, 2010. This season's team accompanied with marginally higher expectations but equally dependent upon the character over natural talent can aim to have one more playoff contest decided in its favor.

Readers, here it is, the last piece dedicated exclusively to predicting through statistical prognostication from where the offense for the Cornell hockey team will come and at which level it can be expected to produce during the 2015-16 season.

​The first entrant in this series takes aim at the newcomers. That piece predicts to what degree freshmen will erase offensive losses to graduation and ease the scoring woes of the Big-Red program. The second entry takes a different approach. It chooses to highlight the integral role that offensive-minded defensemen play in all of Cornell hockey's championship teams. In this way, it is both carrot in promising possible immortality and stick in placing pressure on the carnelian and white's talented blue liners. The penultimate installment addresses the role of the sophomore and senior classes. The development of those classes from their previous season historically and statistically provides the greatest reservoir for internal scoring growth. This writer concludes that if those classes improve by average increments, Cornell's offense will remain deficient even compared to that of last season.

These chapters of this statistical saga are incomplete. Cornell will not play games as mere classes. The freshmen, sophomores, and seniors will not lace up against an opponent's entire roster without the aid of other classes. The blue liners will not stare down and rally answers alone to a challenger's salvos. And, anyways, what of the junior class? The Red will play as a unit. How will this Cornell aggregation enter every contest from Niagara until what will become its final grapple? What essential unit will determine the success or failure of this season?

Bo Schembechler knew the answer: "The Team, The Team, The Team, The Team."

Now, I do not recommend stealing much from Michigan (much less anything from Princeton), but the sentiment rings true across the spans of geography, universities, and sports. So, reader, in this final chapter, let's put the data together and see what we can expect this team for Cornell hockey to play like. The team is our team after all.

Offense is the big concern of everyone. This is justifiable. The biggest concern to outsiders of East Hill is how to close the gap to the offensive contributions that left Central New York to graduation. However, classes are not replaced, players are. Relying on this truism, this writer reduced the statistics of each player from last season's senior class to their goals and points per game totals. When aggregated to determine the contributions of the class as a whole, measures of player-goals and player-points per game emerged.

The reliance on player-goals and player-points per game allows a better reduction of the value that a player conferred while playing than resorting strictly to absolute goals and points. Joel Lowry scored only the fourth-greatest number of goals for the team last season. Injury shortened the star forward's senior campaign. Lowry's goals and points per game led the team last season. His lead over his nearest competitor, Christian Hilbrich, enjoyed a buffer of 12.5% of Hilbrich's output. 

One reasonably could value Cornell's offensive losses from Joel Lowry's graduation to only four goals. This contributor believes that choice devalues Lowry's contributions last season. For example, half of the goals that Lowry scored decided games.

Using Lowry as an example indicates how relying on player-goals and player-points per game better approximates the actual contributions lost to graduation. Furthermore, the methodology dually appreciates the offensive losses of the team. Players like Joel Lowry and Joakim Ryan who lost significant percentages of their senior years have their contributions weighted equally with those of their classmates who enjoyed more game action. Specifically, the player-goals per game approach places the Big Red's offensive deficit 41.4% larger than does an approach relying on absolute goals per game lost.

In other words, use of player-goals per game estimates what Cornell's offense ideally would have been last season but for injuries to key personnel. This means that any expected contributions that erase the deficiency already correlate to an anticipated improvement in the Red's offensive prowess relative to its offense of last season because of the 41.4% overestimate. Calculating player-goals and player-points per game metrics for this season's freshman, sophomore, and senior classes is the basis of two entries in this series that approximate what percentage of the contributions of last season's senior class should be erased with average performances.

None of those classes eliminates alone the 0.82 player-goals per game of last season's senior class.

​Do not get too worried. Using a model that bases expected freshman-season performances on correlating junior league-specific data of every freshman under Schafer to that player's freshman offensive output, a projection for each of this season's freshman is made. Remember, this is an average based upon several assumptions that depreciate the expected contributions of players like Chad Otterman and Beau Starrett because of prep hockey's limited data availability. The model for freshman scoring predicts that the newcomers's performances will supplant 64.6% of the player-goals per game that Cornell lost.

Another method determines the incremental improvements that upperclassmen should manifest in their playing based upon the data from over 100 players under Coach Schafer. This model, much like the overestimate in offensive debt, is painstakingly conservative to provide readers and this writer with a worst-case scenario. For example, players who experience infinite relative growth between any two consecutive seasons (i.e. going from zero goals scored to a non-zero goals scored season) have their data removed for that increment. This preserves the conservatism of the analysis.

The model divined that the sophomore and senior classes on the 2015-16 team will account respectively for 47.6% and 96.3% of the 0.82 player-goals per game lost. So, among three classes, no class is expected with historically average contribution to account for much less than half of the Red's lost offense. Two classes are expected to make up large majorities of the losses.

Remember the words of Bo. Schafer is not trying to replace a class as commentators, critics, and fans will have you believe. The coach is building a team. So, reader, compare likes to likes with last season's team to what is expected of this coming season's team. Multiple sets of data and their associated expectations lie before us. Let's put 'em together and see what we get. What exactly compromises this team's bibbidi-bobbidi-boo?

​Wait. There are four classes on a team. What about those juniors? If one applies the same approach for determining upperclassman improvement to the data from last season's sophomores to project their contributions as this season's juniors based upon average relative scoring changes between sophomore and junior years, the role of the junior class becomes clear. The juniors alone are expected to erase the deficit of player-goals per game of last season's seniors.

The efforts of Holden Anderson, Matt Buckles, Eric Freschi, Jeff Kubiak, Patrick McCarron, Gavin Stoick, and Jake Weidner should deliver Cornell with 0.85 player-goals per game. So, there it is, the Rosetta Stone that can translate Cornell's incumbent talent into a way of eclipsing the scoring lost to graduation for which all media profess pursuit.

The model across all three related pieces projects the team, this Cornell hockey team for the 2015-16 season, to produce 2.56 player-goals per game. The team's immediate predecessor totaled only 2.28 player-goals per game. A model ripe with conservative estimates to provide worst- and average-case scenarios predicts that this season's team will be 12.3% more lethal at scoring than was the team that represented Cornell last season.

An improvement of that scale to Cornell's offense last season would have given the Big Red seven more goals. Eleven games over the course of last season saw the carnelian and white fail to win by one goal or less. Seven additional goals might have decided six tied contests in the Big Red's favor which would have given Cornell a win total of 17, identical to the win total of the 2013-14 season.

Player-goals per game and team-goals per game do not exactly correlate. Some intellectual massaging relates the two. Assuming that catastrophic injuries do not plague a team, player-goals per game and team-goals per game will approach one another. Additionally, the more productive players whose production in a player-goals per game model is weighted equally with the production of less productive players contribute disproportionately over a season which forces team-goals per game to drift. In reality, more productive players will see more game time which allows their contributions to push upward on the team-goals per game without throttling while less ice time will mitigate the lower production rate of other players. These factors reflect why player-goals per game for a team can serve as a crude surrogate for estimating team-goals per game.

If Cornell is able to parlay a conservative estimate of latent talent of 2.56 player-goals per game into a 2.56 team-goals per game for the season, the outlook of the season may be very different than naysayers predict. Cornell would hit its highest offensive output in three seasons, surpass the production of the Red's last run to the ECAC Hockey championship game, and tie for third-best in the last ten seasons. The Big Red's offense would remain depressed more than 10% relative to when Cornell defeated Michigan in the 2012 NCAA tournament. A deficit of nearly 25% of offensive potency would separate this expected scoring rate from that of the last team that brought Cornell a postseason crown in 2010.

A conservative model predicts that Cornell's offense should be improved by a not insignificant margin this season. Freshmen, sophomores, and seniors should become role players. Statistically, it is the juniors who should be the tip of the Red's spear. Another edged weapon is present in these data; a double-edged sword. The Red's offense should approach the scoring touch of the 2010-11 team that carried Cornell to its last Eastern title-game appearance but fall short of possessing the weapons of the 2010 and 2012 postseason that won a title and defeated Michigan, respectively.

This is what one should be able to expect. The task falls to the team to rise above the base, average projections of this contributor's model if its members want to grasp greatness. Statistics indicate that it should be a good year. It is up to the players and coaches to mature this team's latent talent to give the Lynah Faithful a great year.

The good news? All this prognostication becomes moot the moment the puck strikes the ice at Dwyer Arena. The bad news? Mootness erases the relevance of all the hope that these projections may imbue.

The third entry into this writer's series on the offensive prospects for the 2015-16 hockey team returns to the original framing of this series. Rather than outlining tried-and-true means of success for Cornell hockey teams (i.e. the essential role of offensive defensemen to championship runs) as a blueprint or an element of motivation, this piece examines what can be expected of the Big Red's scoring relying upon over two decades of statistics in constructing a model.

This contributor predicted what contribution of goals and points can be expected of the freshman class this season based upon the performance of former wearers of the carnelian and white relative to the production of those players in their last season of junior hockey. No matter how large the freshman class is, it cannot be expected to deliver the yeoman's share of offensive production that will propel a team toward regular-season and postseason success. That task rightfully falls to the upperclassmen.

What can the Lynah Faithful expect of the skaters from the sophomore, junior, and senior classes? Adages inform fans and coaches alike that the most significant improvement that any player will experience in playing ability occurs between a player's freshman and sophomore seasons. So, there you have it, the buck stops with Ryan Bliss, Jared Fiegl, Alex Rauter, Dwyer Tschantz, Dan Wedman, and Trevor Yates. Satisfied?

Did not think so. You come to Where Angels Fear to Tread expecting a little more bang for your buck and to find analysis more probing than an episode of The X-Files (hopefully not the only throwback watched this season). How's this for probing? This contributor went through the careers of every skater who played for Mike Schafer, parsed each player's goal and point totals from each year of his career, and calculated each player's relative improvement from one season to the next. This approach incorporates data from two decades of players. It relies upon the seasonal statistics from well over 100 players who played within Schafer's system.

Each player's data were reduced to units of goals and points per game. Why was this choice made? It is the most meaningful way of assessing what a player will do when his number is called to start in a big game, or any game. There is a vast situational gulf between players who score five goals in five games and those who score five goals in 36 games.

Relative or proportional improvement was selected rather than absolute improvement because athletic output varies incrementally. Objectively, a player who scores one goal in his freshman year and then scores five in his sophomore year improved much more than a player who scored five goals in his freshman year and then scores nine goals in his sophomore year. Both scored four more goals. One improved by 400% while the other did by 80%. This highlights that output increases as a percentage of a base level rather than an artificial absolute. This choice in model permits more general applicability.

​​The difference between forwards and defensemen was maintained throughout this approach. The scoring efficacy of forwards and defensemen are subject to other concerns during their development. Many defensemen come to East Hill to work with Coach Schafer to improve their defensive game after possessing developed offensive upside. Forwards may receive more ice time as they progress through the ranks of the team. An elder forward often matures into a go-to goal scorer while elder defensemen play nearly half of a contest and become committed most to responsible defensive play without err. These development paths likely affect the incremental goal scoring changes that each position experiences over four seasons.

​Preserving the forward-defenseman distinction proved fortuitous. Variations in scoring over four-year careers of players under Schafer differ greatly between forwards and defensemen. Application and explication of the data follow.

Well, as is often the case, adages are not accidental. The greatest appreciation in goal scoring occurs between freshman and sophomore campaigns, and junior and senior campaigns. For forwards. Remaining with the freshman-sophomore and junior-senior jumps, defensemen actually experience a decrease in goals per game between their junior and senior seasons. This taper accompanies an explosion in points per game production of 40% as blue liners's roles on the team mature.

Now, back to the forwards. Rising freshman and rising junior forwards score more in the following season by the largest margins. How much more? The greatest scoring surge of any type of player occurs for forwards transitioning between their freshman and sophomore seasons. Goal production of these transitioning players increases by more than 55%. The complementary point increase is even greater. Sophomore forwards tally more than 60% more points per game in their second season than they do in their first. A second wind of sorts comes for forwards in the next big jump period as well.

Senior forwards improve their goal-scoring rate nearly as much as they did after their first post-Cornell offseason. Seniors find the back of the net nearly 50% more often in their final run in the carnelian and white as they did when they were juniors. However, senior forwards endure their career-worst improvement in terms of point production with an increase of a mere 23% relative to their rate during their junior seasons. This wraps up explication. So, let's apply these findings.

Rising freshmen of both the defenseman and forward varieties improve in terms of both goals and points per game production. The blue liners register 60% more points per game in their second stint which equates to roughly the same scoring improvement expected of similarly situated forwards. Sophomore defensemen find the twine behind opposing netminders 29% more frequently than they did during their first season carrying the historic responsibility of being a Red blue liner.

This writer's model projects that this season's sophomore class will contribute 0.39 player-goals per game and 1.87 player-points per game. The players from the other cohort that improves most statistically, this season's senior class, are anticipated to provide 0.79 player-goals per game and 0.94 player-points per game. The departed Class of 2015 gave last season's team production rates of 0.82 player-goals per game and 2.85 player-points per game.

Those data reveal that neither this season's sophomore nor senior class can be expected with average incremental scoring changes of its members to erase the player-goals and player-points per game contribution of last season's senior class. This is somewhat disappointing news. The production of this season's senior class is expected to fall within 0.03 player-goals per game of that of last season's senior class which is partially reassuring. Falling short of replacing a nearly impotent offensive arsenal by no matter how small of a margin still leaves this season's team with great strides to be made.

The optimism in this statistic is that four seniors are projected with a model based upon mean data to mask all but the slimmest of goal-scoring contributions from the six members of last season's senior class. The model even anticipates the offensive goal scoring of Reece Willcox to dip this season. An assumption founded in historical statistics but that finds little subjective justification to anyone who watched flashes of Willcox's offensive abilities early last season before his injury.

Now, what about those 2.85 player-points per game that the Big Red lost? Well, it should take the collective might of both the sophomore and senior classes to eliminate that deficiency. An ill omen is unearthed in that the combined expected player-points per game production of the sophomore and seniors classes combined falls short of the same datum for the elder statesmen of last season by 0.04 player-points per game. So, while the sophomores and seniors of this season's team should surpass the player-goals per game tallies of last season's seniors by approximately 45%, the team will remain at a loss of point production even with the combined efforts of both expectedly most-improved classes.

This conclusion is the first harbinger of alarm for the offensive outlook of the coming season's team. Examination of the expected seasons of the freshman class, and the gap between the current defensemen and their champion antecedents left readers with a much brighter glimmer of hope than does this analysis. This contributor tries to provide reasoned analysis to set expectations reasonably.

The data illustrate that the improvements over time of players go beyond statistics. Sophomores become better all-around players. Seniors improve upon their goal scoring rapidly. The careers of well over 100 players reinforce those facts beyond even statistics. In the realm of statistics, the data is clear. Sophomores and seniors will have meaningful ground to traverse to make up for offensive losses. Average improvement by the typically most-improved classes will leave the Red wanting offense.

The confluence of past, present, and future ensnared the intersection at Free and Center Streets in Portland, ME. Passersby catching random glimpses of iconic sweaters and trademark palettes might have ventured guesses that they had slid into another time, another place. Had they found themselves at the 1987 NCAA tournament in East Lansing, stumbled upon a space between back to the 1993 Frozen Four in Milwaukee, or slipped through temporal cracks back to the 2000 Frozen Four in Providence? Any or all were believable in an instant. That is the power of college hockey. This timelessness was unfurled like vintage banners to full splendor in Portland's Cross Insurance Arena last weekend.

For two days in October, no other place in North America could lay claim to being as much of hockey's home as could that city along the shore. The trident of time impaled the participants of the Ice Breaker unequally. The powers of past, present, and future weighed heaviest on the University of Maine. From the Black Bears's entry into the tournament in a contest against Michigan State when the Spartans relied on Travis Walsh to shore up their blue line, constant reminders of Shawn Walsh's legend and role in building Maine hockey descended on the Cross Insurance Arena.

The present was on the minds of most of the Black Bears. The new season needs to be better than the last. Red Gendron, now unmustachioed from his famed days as Yale's associate head coach in Pittsburgh, hopes to lead Maine back to conference and national contention sooner rather than later. Finding a freshman netminder who met the best that one of college hockey's most vaunted programs could hurl his way and leading a young squad to two pairwise ties (and shootout wins) in emotionally laden games to open the season indicate that Red's sooner may be present.

The future nonetheless twirled through the minds of those associated with Portland, Cross Insurance Arena, and Maine hockey. The 2015 Ice Breaker tested the grounds for the ability of all associated parties to host similar events in the future. The stated goal for the Portland-supporting parties is hosting an NCAA regional. Mark Emmert of the Portland Press Herald distilled the decision between success or failure in reaching this goal to the ability of the 2015 Ice Breaker to answer one apt question: "Is Portland a hockey town?"

For the contributors of Where Angels Fear to Tread, the answer is an emphatic yes.

One must define terms to answer better Mr. Emmert's inquiry. What is a hockey town? What gives a community that moniker? This writer believes that another triplet distinguishes hockey towns from towns where hockey is played.

Those three elements are accommodations, breadth of knowledge and interest, and catharsis (okay, the last one may be defined better as passion, but how am I to resist the temptation incumbent in making an ABCs for hockey towns?). Accommodations concern both the surrounding environs as well as the venue in which games will be played. In the former case, the Portland area is replete with possibilities from downtown hotels within walking distance of Cross Insurance Arena to the beach-front hotels that dot the region's resort communities.

The second half of the A in the ABCs of hockey towns is what inspires most debate about suitability of the Cross Insurance Arena in Portland, ME hosting an NCAA regional. Is the Arena too big? Is it too small? Most have an opinion. Few support theirs with facts. This writer superimposed some cold, hard facts on the seating chart of the 2015 Ice Breaker's venue.

We hear every season the lamentations that NCAA regionals are played in front of empty, half-empty, or moribund arenas. Rarely does anyone provide the historical average attendance of an NCAA regional. This contributor calculated the average attendance of all regionals since the NCAA adopted the current single-elimination, four-game format with no byes in 2003. There are several facts to consider before the average attendance figure is given. Firstly, official attendance figures report formal sellouts only six times in 13 completed tournaments. Only two of those sellouts occurred at a site that was not on the host's campus. Perceived smallness of buildings has been far from a problem over more than a decade of regionals.

An average of 6,460 college-hockey fans attend a given NCAA regional game since 2003. Notwithstanding regional banter, the East does slightly outdraw the West (divvying East and Northeast into "East," and Midwest and West into "West") in terms of attendance at regionals. Eastern hosts see on average 6,474 sweater-wearing zealots revolve the turnstiles for their events.

So, how does Cross Insurance Arena stack up (or, fill up, if you will) relative to those figures? The reported capacity of the Arena is 6,733. Red Gendron differed a bit when he goaded Mainers to fill an arena whose capacity he purported to be around 6,900. No matter the figure, the Cross Insurance Arena is more than large enough to host an NCAA regional. The average crowd for an NCAA regional in the East still would leave roughly four percent of seats vacant. In fact, and based upon facts, the Cross Insurance Arena seems to be the perfect size for an NCAA regional.

The breadth of knowledge and interest in college hockey among Mainers and Portland was impressive. Roaming the picturesque streets of the inviting seaside community, even away from the Ice Breaker's block party, locals engaged and struck up conversations about college hockey. There was no lack of latent interest in college hockey. In fact, the apparent breadth of its appeal outside of the arena, outside of the dark blue and light blue-wearing throngs, and away from the event made Portland a particularly gracious host for even unaligned fans like the contributors of Where Angels Fear to Tread.
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Forgive this writer a digression. Coaches of great programs, like Boston University and Cornell, often look outside the world of college hockey to find fanaticism that equals the devotion that accompanies their programs. Few programs in college hockey can boast that their fans's investment equals that of college football. There is a reason why David Quinn is not amiss in describing Red Hot Hockey as the Terriers's biennial "bowl game." Mike Schafer is right ​to find the nearest peer of the rabid antics of Lynah Rink in the football stadia of the B1G and SEC during Fall.

Sitting in a hockey rink in Portland, watching Mainers embrace their hockey team, as alumni and citizens alike, this unaligned writer realized that what Maine has is distinct. Red Gendron with a judicious addendum at the well-organized and fun block party said that no program in the nation enjoys the support of "fans, alumni, and citizens" like the hockey team of the University of Maine. This writer, after just having enjoyed the welcoming community's fare, found himself in agreement.

Black-Bears hockey teams are embraced in a manner and way that only the football teams of large public universities in the B1G and SEC truly can sympathize. It was nothing short of electric to experience. The Lynah Faithful more than equal the zeal of supporters of the Maine hockey program. However, the constitution of the Lynah Faithful is academic through a shared alma mater or regional in terms of proximity to either Central New York or New York City. There is something special when an entire state gloms onto a team as a symbol of self like Mainers do with the hockey team from the University of Maine.

This attachment extends to most things college hockey which makes Portland a perfect host for future Ice Breakers and NCAA regionals. The city makes college-hockey events seem consequential and provides visitors with ample recreational outlets of all varieties. The venue is the perfect size. It is better to have a building that can endure a poor regional draw from seeding without swimming in space and drowning in costs than to have a larger, cavernous building feel emptier. If the Cross Insurance Arena were blessed with a good draw from the committee, the building would be transformed into the intimate and raucous environments that distinguish the best of college hockey from all other sports.

And, if Maine earns a berth to the national tournament when Portland hosts, well, it is always magical when the Black Bears play in Maine.

Some performances are downright offensive. At times, last season was offensive in all the wrong ways. The season culminated in the dually most and least offensive moment of the season: a 7-0 humbling to Union at home in the playoffs. The scoring production hit rock bottom. The usually rare disillusionment of the Lynah Faithful soared for the first time in a decade.

This is not to say that last season was without its memorable moments and high notes (think second win in the Frozen Apple, historic defeat of Denver, and two emotional Harvard games). None can erase what lies ahead of this coming season. The Cornell hockey program will be on a path of proving next season. All the questions with few exceptions encircle addressing the Red's offensive woes throughout the entirety of last season. In a multipart series, this contributor of Where Angels Fears to Tread will address the ways in which the coming team will redress this fever-inducing problem.

The last installment of this multipart series addressed exactly how much scoring the freshman class can be expected to contribute. Allow this writer the courtesy of stepping away from prognostication and treading into the realm of aspiration in this piece in the series. Predictive analysis will return in the next iterations of this preseason set, but let's take a look at some historical trends and use them to provide some motivation to a specific cohort on the 2015-16 Cornell hockey team.

Everyone the college-hockey world​ over knows that Cornell is GoalieU. This legacy is in the able hands of Mitch Gillam and Hayden Stewart. What outsiders of East Hill may not realize is that the carnelian and white have an equally entrenched legacy at another position in the starting line-up. Expecting great defensive and scoring performances from the blue line is as immutable as the appearance of the Cornell hockey sweater.

The championship runs of great Big Red hockey teams are tabbed as much by the era of given defensemen as they are goaltenders. Nick D'Agostino, Charlie Cook, Mark McRae, Chad Wilson, Steve Wilson, Mike Schafer, Geoff Roeszler, and George Kuzmicz are synonymous with their respective championship seasons and runs. Gordie Lowe, Harry Orr, and Skip Stanowski are among the best to play college hockey. The incomparable Dan Lodboa, the only transformative defenseman in the modern era of college hockey deserving of analogy to Bobby Orr, is the best defenseman to lace skates in a Frozen Four

Ever since Frank Crassweller, an all-American rover, danced on the ice of Boston Arena and St. Nicholas Rink and contributed to a 1911 championship, Cornell fans have expected much from their defensemen. However, when much is expected, not always is much realized. Last season, reality did not meet expectations.

​Blue liners last season found the back of the net only eight times. The entire defensive corps garnered only 45 points. The former amounts to the second-worst goal-scoring performance of a defensive unit during the Schafer era. The latter fairs exactly the same. 45 points equate to the second fewest that a Schafer-coached group of blueliners has contributed. The season worse in both categories is not the same. So, arguably, last season was the worst offensive year for defensemen in two decades. This result was a tremendous letdown with all the promise of a Joakim Ryan-led cadre.

​The disappointing conclusion of last season was nonetheless predictable when promise did not amount to potency. The numbers above could be misleading because they reflect absolute productivity for a season during which Cornell knew little production as a whole. Defensive scoring even trailed off as relative to overall scoring last season. The average Schafer-coached Cornell team generates 16.6% of its goals and 23.9% of its points from blue liners. Last season, goal production from skaters among the back two dipped below that average to 14.0%. This leads to an interesting trend.

The premise of this piece is that championship teams of Cornell hockey have been predictably dependent upon goal scoring from defensemen throughout every era of the program. The statistics bear out a certain level of predictability between the percentage of offense in terms of goals that a blue-line corps produces and the ultimate postseason success of that team. The average championship team at Cornell since 1967 has relied on defensemen for 16.6% of its goals. No, that is not a typo. The average relative contribution of defensemen of all modern championship teams equals exactly the average production of Schafer-coached teams. Perhaps there is a reason why in 20 years, Schafer has taken the Red to a title game 10 times.

Averages are nice and all, but means can be misleading. Appending a standard deviation to the championship mean will give a better understanding of the range of rates at which the average championship defensive corps produces goals relative to the mean. The group of defensemen contributes between 12.4% to 20.8% of goals on an average Cornell championship team (Oh, the spoils of being able to say something like "average championship" team in a meaningful way).

Shockingly, the offensive contributions of the 2014-15 defensemen squeak into that range. A 14.0% contribution of goals scored puts last season's blue liners in the bottom quartile of the range. The high-scoring eras of the 1970s and 1980s possibly depressed the ability of defensemen to keep pace. Not everyone can be Pete Shier. For example, the Whitelaw Cup years of 1973, 1980, and 1986, defensemen on those teams never contributed more than 13.3% of the goals that a banner-raising team tallied. Modern golden ages of Cornell hockey have come under Harkness and Schafer.

Using the championships teams from Cornell's most dominant era and its current bench boss (you know, whose system will be guiding the 2015-16 team), a new average band for average goal contributions from the defensive line-up emerges. The combined Harkness and Schafer range for defensive contributions is more than 10% narrower than the all-time championship range which reinforces the argument that when Cornell enjoys the greatest dominance, its style of play is consistent across multiple eras. The Harkness-Schafer range of defensive goal-scoring contributions is 14.4% to 21.8%.

So, was the writing on the wall last season? Yes, using the metric of reliable contributions of offense from the blue line, the 2014-15 blue line did not hold up its end of a time-honored tradition of gaudy relative offensive contributions. The group did not differ greatly from the average contribution that the average championship team deviates from the mean, but its offensive output remained sub-par for a squad that had the potential for playoff glory.

The closeness, only 0.4% off the blue-line goal-scoring pace of the range of the average of 11 of Cornell's championship teams, illustrates the slim margin between greatness and disappointment. There are good omens and bad omens in this.

Only marginal relative increases were needed for Cornell's back end to live up to this institutional tradition. Only two more goals from defensemen last season would have put the 2014-15 team at the Schafer-era average. Those two goals could have been the difference in the first quarterfinal contest against Union. That's the good news.

The bad news? Cornell's offense will need to be much improved next season overall. So, the task will fall to the defensemen to have an even better year relative to their scoring forward compatriots to carry the privilege of this statistically predictive legacy of scoring carnelian defensemen.

Anemic offense and injuries hurt the production of Cornell's blue line last season. The coming Cornell defensive corps with Holden Anderson, Ryan Bliss, Patrick McCarron, Alec McCrea, Trent Shore, Matt Nuttle, Brendan Smith, Dan Wedman, and Reece Willcox has the elements to drive such a disproportionate increase. However, as this writer said in the opening, this piece is not predictive. It is more of an issuance of a challenge. This writer thinks that Cornell's defensemen can rise to the challenge. The stakes are clear if they cannot.