The skaters and goaltenders of the 2015-16 season's edition of Cornell hockey ended their introduction against St. Lawrence and Clarkson with demonstrative force. The carnelian and white wrested from a confident Saints crew a 2-1 victory and precious conference points and pounced on the insecurities of the Golden Knights who remained winless in ECAC Hockey. These victories culminated the first semester. The record for the team stood at 8-1-2.

Exams were taken. Holidays were observed on either side of those meters. Food was devoured. Trips were undertaken.

The Big Red wrapped first-semester play with an exquisite, seasonally appropriate ribbon typified with John Knisley's goal and Anthony Angello's buzzer beater. Knisley returned from abdominal injury and surgery in little over a month's time to ensure that the draft of the first semester materialized. One may say that he guaranteed it. His character in doing so was of the team.

Each week during the first semester, a new player would step up to carry the mantle of leader. Moments took lives of their own. Christian Hilbrich's goal at Dwyer Arena, Jeff Kubiak's last-seconds goal against Princeton, Anthony Angello's overtime winner against Colgate, and Dan Wedman's grappling on after a game-saving blocked shot at Madison Square Garden. These moments were common. They were not unusual. The uncommonly selfless became common. That was last season.

The tautology of Bill Parcells atop this page, one that Coach Schafer invokes occasionally, is true. Like all great quotes of prediction, it is absolutely true. Until ​it is not.

Readers may not expect this but this contributor finds in the Red's gaudy record as much of a cause for alarm as praise. A record of such a quality often leads to a macro-problem on the scale of the micro-problem that doomed Cornell against Quinnipiac. A one-loss record through the first one-third of the regular-season schedule resembles a sizable three-goal lead over halfway through a game against a quality opponent. Mercy is a vice, not a virtue, that metastasizes into hubris.

Opponents have no reason to revere a Cornell team, no matter its record, that has hibernated for more than three weeks. The first semester was last season. Everything needs to be proven anew. Think this is overstated?

This writer turns to the example of football once more. The College Football Playoff inaugurated last year. The layoff and extensive travel between conference title games, usually played conveniently for comparative reasons during the first weekend in December, and the semifinals and finals, played respectively and conveniently within days of New Year's Eve and the second week in January, were culprits in the erosion of the honed play of teams earning berths. Urban Meyer, Mark Helfrich, and Nick Saban identified exhausting travel and downtime as overly daunting on student-athletes in a manner that sacrificed their on-field performance.

The players for this Cornell hockey team are coming off a more than three-week break. They endured among the most rigorous examination processes, traveled home for a portion of break, headed to Florida, and planned returns to Upstate New York after a stint in the Sunshine State. If the itinerary for teams in the College Football Playoff was too daunting for those student-athletes, the surpassingly more challenging slog for the wearer of the carnelian served to reset the season. 

Will they be as good as their record? Will they be better? Will they be worse? It is as of yet undetermined.

Contributors of Where Angels Fear to Tread found themselves meandering through picturesque Amherst College after the Big Red closed the first semester. During such a frolic, observers stumble upon a statue of the famed poet poised to speak a verse. As someone with Cornell hockey rarely far from his mind, the most famous lines that Robert Frost, once a professor at the renowned liberal-arts college in Massachusetts, came to mind.

The junction between the first semester when teams find their identities and the second semester when teams write their legacies is a divergence in the woods. Cornell hockey was left to wander the wilderness for three weeks. Its players reset. Resetting is not to be viewed as bad.

Coach Schafer indicated that the three-week break would allow the health of his forward corps to become flush. The Red bench boss indicated that all skaters but Luc Lalor were expected to be available to the coaching staff for intersession and the beginning of second-semester play. 

These wanderings were not lost. They were guided by a vox clamantis in deserto. The calamity was the well-known bark of Coach Schafer. It reminded his players that when their thoughts turned to the season, they must think in one particular way.

"We want to have the mentality of a 1-8-2 team...we start over," told the admonition of the champion coach.

This is an entirely new season. The first semester, last season, was not as other believed it in retrospect. Niagara, a team that took six weeks to get its first win, nearly derailed the first win that Cornell enjoyed during the first semester. A healthy dose of humility is the essence of that. Cornell can be again a team that deserves the praise that one-time naysayers capriciously have decided to pour onto the team. It easily could be a team that did not find a way to win at Dwyer Arena.

One team element for the Red needs a gross reset. Cornell closed first-semester play with a power-play unit that allowed too many unforced clears and, when playing like it was drilled in its systems, too predictably choreographed its puck movements so that more skilled penalty-killing units never felt threatened. For East Hill's hockey team to remain threatening and claim any semblance of the dominance that commentators have attributed to it, Cornell needs to be more honed on the power play and that needs to start in Florida against a Providence team that gives little and takes much.

This is not to undermine offensive confidence. One weekend, one weekend, during the first semester gave any reason for anyone to doubt the offensive prowess of this carnelian-and-white team. Cornell scored one goal on its swing through Connecticut and Rhode Island. Mitch Gillam, proving that his architectural niche is minimalism, built a three-point weekend around a mere one goal. How did the Big Red respond? Its skaters averaged 3.33 goals per game to close out the semester. 

This team can score. It can score from the youngest to the oldest. Every senior has tallied a goal even if they had to come back from surgery just to do it (looking at you, Knisley). Four of five freshmen who have played more than two games own at least a goal in their column. Offense may come in ebbs and flows, but this team's dam is filled to the brim.

Providence is the first test of the new season. Like the first semester, the Red nominally begin on the road. Hey, if LeBron came say Miami and Cleveland are the same, Red skaters and the Lynah Faithful can believe that there is no difference between Western New York and western Florida. Nate Leaman's squad is as confident in all phases of the game as Cornell deserves to be on offense.

Leaman, having a bit of the latent Harkness influence remain with him from his days at Union College, converted Jake Walman from a forward to a defenseman. Walman since has played like he thinks that he is Dan Lodboa or something. Walman leads all blue liners in goals per game. The sophomore defenseman is behind one-tenth of a goal per game off of the pace of Jimmy Vesey of Harvard. The high-scoring Friar is unlikely to compete in this game against the Red.

Providence College, like Union College before it, has become a clearing house where Nate Leaman stockpiles astounding amounts of goaltending talent. Leaman started with Jon Gillies. Gillies handed him the national championship trophy last season before ending his collegiate career. Then, Leaman picked up Hayden Hawkey, a highly touted goaltender from the USHL. Why? Probably because he could. The crazy part? Hawkey has not been the assumed starter this season.

Nick Ellis likely will be the first last obstacle that challenges the Red's offensive onslaught in Florida. Ellis owns a 0.940 save percentage. The resolve of Cornell will be tested on the other side of the bracket as well. Thatcher Demko leads the nation with six shutouts after recovering from offseason surgery and an injury. Statistics may not say much of Ohio State's Christian Frey this season. Frey is prone to big games. He held one of the nation's best offenses to one goal and ended Penn State's season in so doing last season in the Big Ten tournament.

Oh, yeah, Jerry York's stable of forwards? They're pretty good. The Eagles lack the services of raved-about sensation Colin White. White is very talented. However, for a dose of perspective, he has scored two more goals than Anthony Angello on five more games. Fear not, Jerry York has you covered if you want to see more gaudy freshman talent. Miles Wood may still fly with the Eagles. An undefeated opponent, an always talented team, and a team too easily overlooked make a deadly mix.

What type of sigh will accompany our telling of this season? Will it be of exasperation or elation?
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​Will this team be as good its first-semester record? One thing is certain, if its members want any chance of being that good, especially with the steep competition it will face in the coming weeks, they better not think so. A new season begins.

This contributor transitioned the focus of Where Angels Fear to Tread's coverage from the brooding angst of the offseason to the contemplative forecast of the preseason with a four-part series from August through October. Worry not, dear reader, this will be a one-off (I think). It is only appropriate with the first semester racing away in the rearview mirror that this writer gives an update on how this Cornell hockey team compared to the predictive and historic models used in his preason pieces.

The four-part series focused on four elements that could retrieve the Cornell hockey program from the ditch in which it was left last March. Those elements were the freshmen, defensemen, development of the sophomore and senior classes, and collective play of the team. Each component discussed in those installments played an integral role in offensive success of the Red's 15 championship teams. How did this ensemble of skaters stack up through its first 11 games?

Media contributors, even those who are considered friends of Where Angels Fear to Tread, doubted the consensus of the writers of Where Angels Fear to Tread that the incoming class of freshmen would contribute immediately. Outside media grew more skeptical when this contributor devised an individualized model that predicted that this season's freshman class would erase 64.6% of the player-goals per game that were lost to graduation last season.

Last season's seniors produced 0.45 player-goals per game and 2.14 player-points per game in the first semester. Are you firmly fastened in your seat? Anthony Angello outpaced the aggregate player-goals per game production of all of last season's six seniors. The freshman forward produced one-tenth of one goal per game more than did an entire graduating class during the first semester of last season. Mitch Vanderlaan identically tied the first-semester goals per game production of Joel Lowry whose play is remembered fondly as a beginning of a senior-season tear that injury cut far too short.

Anthony Angello, Alec McCrea, Matt Nuttle, Trent Shore, Brendan Smith, Beau Starrett, and Mitch Vanderlaan combined for 1.20 player-goals per game for the Big Red's first 11 contests. Those newcomers were credited with 2.39 player-points per game. So, yes, an apology is in order. Not to the media members who doubted this writer's conservative model that Cornell's freshmen would erase 64.6% of Cornell's departing player-goals per game and 62.8% of Cornell's departing player-points per game, but to the freshman class who outperformed the player-goals per game and player-points per game productions of last season's senior class by 167% and 11.7%, respectively.

The freshmen delivered more than they were expected. They carried the weight of the team nearly twice as much as anticipated. However, the freshmen were but a piece of the puzzle that Coach Schafer needed to place for a successful season. Engaging the blue line as a reliable contribution of offense was another key factor in propelling Cornell.

A disproportionate number of greats who wore the carnelian and white were defensemen. Proportionate to this reality is the fact that the ballad of all great teams in the saga of Cornell hockey rely on the offensive contributions of blue liners. Harkness- and Schafer-coached teams have won 11 of the Red's 15 postseason championships. Defensemen on those nine teams provided between 14.4% and 21.8% of the goals scored on those title-winning teams.

Last season's defensive corps fell outside of that range. A paltry four-tenths of one percent displaced it. The razor-thin line between success and failure is apparent in that. Carnelian blue liners through the first semester of this season generated 14.7% of the goals that their team scored. That share of contribution placed the performances of the Red defense just within the Harkness-Schafer championship band.

Patrick McCarron leads the rear guard's goal scoring. The junior found his scoring touch during the Colgate series. Nominal roster defenseman Holden Anderson who became the carnelian-and-white yeoman in the first semester contributed the same total of goals. The figure of 14.7% above counts for Cornell's blue line only those goals that Anderson scored while playing as a defenseman. If all of Anderson's goals are counted for the Red's defensive corps, 17.6% of the Big Red's goals have come off of a blue liner's stick before coming to rest in an opponent's net. That figure is solidly within the range of offensive contribution of defensemen on Harkness-Schafer championship teams.

At this same point last season, defensemen contributed only three goals and 15 points. This season's first semester observed as blue liners put up arguably as many as six goals and 30 points. Not only did the defensive cadre of Holden Anderson, Ryan Bliss, Patrick McCarron, Alec McCrea, Matt Nuttle, Trent Shore, Brendan Smith, Dan Wedman, and Reece Willcox contribute offensively at a rate that places them within Cornell's historic championship range, but they outproduced last season's production rate through the first semester by a two-to-one margin.

Last season's seniors had larger-than-life personalities. Many viewed them as all-stars. Detractors, none contributors here, but a few found among the Lynah Faithful, and many media outlets, doubted very publicly the ability of Christian Hilbrich, John Knisley, Teemu Tiitinen, and Reece Willcox to equal the hyped talents of Cole Bardreau, Madison Dias, Joel Lowry, John McCarron, Jacob MacDonald, and Joakim Ryan during their farewell tour.

The temperatures of the Northeastern winter are not the only thing that remain unpredictably hot.

The Class of 2015 deposited the puck for a tally a total of five times during last season's first semester. The departed seniors combined for 0.45 player-goals per game. Current seniors scored six goals during the first semester. This senior class has produced 0.81 player-goals per game from the Big Red's opener at Niagara to its home victory over Clarkson. Hilbrich, Knisley, Tiitinen, and Willcox were 80% more productive in terms of player-goals per game than was last season's senior class. Remember, reader, that use of player-goals per game weights Joel Lowry's incredible first half last season maximally.

Current seniors provided during the Big Red's first 11 games the internal developmental boost that Cornell needed to be successful. Senior leadership propelled one more goal through the first semester than had last season's seniors. Additionally, they provided 80% more offense in terms of contributions of player-goals per game. These current seniors have done this with two fewer members than had the Class of 2015.

When the carnelian and white headed to Florida last season, only two seniors had scored a goal. This season, when Cornell faces off in the Sunshine state, every senior will have scored a goal in the first half of the season. No datum encapsulates how the current seniors have played better. Each one contributes. None cares about credit. The emphasis is the team.

Freshmen overproduced during the first semester. The blue liners have inched within a historic championship range or shattered it based upon whether one counts Holden Anderson as a defenseman or forward. This season's four elder statesmen have played Cornell hockey in a way that last season's six seniors could not. One all-important figure remains.

What was the sum of Cornell hockey's parts during the first semester?

It is easy to point to a record or a winning percentage. Did Coach Schafer's team do enough during the first semester to distinguish itself from last season's failed campaign and its opening? Did Cornell dam a reservoir of offensive confidence for the next semester that culminates in the most important phases of the season?

The 2014-15 edition of Cornell hockey scored 57 goals throughout the entire season. Removing the nauseatingly minuscule two playoff goals that the Red scored in its home stand against Union, one arrives at 55 goals as the total that Cornell scored during last regular season. If one takes a first glance, one realizes that this season's first-semester production did not outstrip the combined offensive production of all of last season. Wow, that would have been impressive.

Back to reality.

This season's team scored 34 goals during the first semester. The 11 games that the Big Red played equate to 37.9% of the slate for the regular season. This team scored 61.8% of last season's total regular-season production in 37.9% of the regular season. Consider that this team's first-semester performance produced nearly two-thirds of last season's total offensive production in barely more than one-third of the regular season.

A more direct comparison lends further light as to the effect of offensive improvements and modifications that the coaching staff implemented during the off- and pre-season. The Red scored 12 more goals in the first semester than it did over the same period last season. Cornell recorded 54.5% more goals through mid-December of this season than it did up until the same point of the 2014-15 season.

The carnelian-and-white skaters carried an immense burden into the season. The task laid before them to put to rest the insomnious worries of the Lynah Faithful that scoring woes doomed their beloved program for the foreseeable future. This contributor provided an objective model to predict where the Red's scoring would return for the 2015-16 season. That model estimated that the members of this team would produce 2.56 player-goals per game. This team eviscerated that figure. The hardened and tested skaters of this team generated 3.46 player-goals per game during the first semester.

An impressive outstripping of this writer's model by 35.2% is promising. It provides the sight of an error that is uncommonly welcome. If Cornell continues to produce at that rate in the second semester, it will be nothing short of jaw-dropping. This team proved in the first semester that it has the capacity to exceed the expectations of media, models, and fans.

The good news? The hard-working players on this Cornell team know that they have the ability to be one of the most offensively threatening teams in the nation. The bad news? Figures from the first semester are as moot in guaranteeing success in the second semester as were last season's figures in damning this team's first-semester successes.

Everyone knows how good Jimmy Vesey is. He was a hopeful for the Hobey Baker Award last season. College-hockey observers expect him to be the frontrunner for that vaunted award this season. The Crimson scorer has done nothing to imperil his candidacy for that award after making good on his promise to return for his senior campaign. Vesey checked in at third in the nation for goal-scoring rate in the first semester.

The storyline that the astute anticipated between Cornell and Harvard this season was between two freshmen: Anthony Angello and Ryan Donato. Both played junior hockey for the Omaha Lancers. Both kept their talents close to home to play for college hockey. Both distinctly represent the ethos of their respective program and university.

It is Angello who finds himself thrust into a far more intriguing narrative. The Central New Yorker's quarrel with the Harvard head coach's son can wait. Was Anthony Angello the Eastern flank of ECAC Hockey's most lethal line in the first semester?

Jimmy Vesey was given the non-Criscuolo half-share of the Crimson captaincy to carry Harvard to heights unrealized. Vesey had the tools at his disposal. His center and right winger returned in Alex Kerfoot and Kyle Criscuolo. They could not be stopped. They could not be equaled. Or, that is what the media told us before the puck struck the ice.

Assistant coach Scott and Coach Schafer must have had other designs. It always comes down to Cornell and Harvard in one way or another, so how would the two Whitelaw Cup champions on Cornell's bench answer the challenge of a very hyped concoction of two parts senior, one part junior?

They entrusted the untested talents of two promising freshmen to junior pivot Jeff Kubiak. It paid dividends.

​There wraps the subjective part of this piece for now. Time for the data. The Vesey-Kerfoot-Criscuolo line ("Hype") broke out this season as expected. The line put three goals on the Big Green in the first contest of the season. The story was going as time-saving journalists with half-written stories before print deadlines had written. The names of Vanderlaan, Kubiak, and Angello did not even appear sequentially on Coach Schafer's line chart for the Red's season opener.

The lag time in formally assembling the Vanderlaan-Kubiak-Angello line ("Hard Work") creates a considerable benefit for comparisons. Harvard played one fewer game than did Cornell in the first semester. Hype and Hard Work played in the same number of contests for the season's first semester. Both played in ten games.

Harvard's Hype factored in 15 goals in ten games. Cornell's Hard Work contributed to burying the puck into opponents's nets 11 times. The Crimson have the better line, right? Sometimes players are as good as expectations. That is likely the case in terms of Harvard's top line. However, at Cornell, where there is no top line, but there is a most prolific line, one needs to consider how the hyped talents of Cambridge, MA have driven those goals to create a reasonable comparison.

Reasonable fans and commentators can agree that despite some mishaps (thinking of you, Randy Wilson) the talent involved in scoring on an empty net is not substantial enough to lift a line from the category of reliable producer to best in the nation. Hype guided one empty-net tally in ten outings. What of power-play goals?

Power-play goals require considerably greater skill to score than do empty-net goals. The situation of a power play increases the likelihood of scoring for the advantaged team. The opportunism, strategy, vision, and, dare this writer say, skill involved in scoring on a power play are slightly less than that required to score on even strength.

Personnel choices affect comparing contribution rates when including power plays. A skater decides neither whether he plays on the power play nor with whom he plays on a power-play unit if he does play. A line that seldomly or never sees ice time on the power play cannot be penalized reasonably for having not scored on the power play because it is never afforded the opportunity. Likewise, when comparing lines, it is hardly equitable to allow a line to drive up its scoring totals by playing in an advantaged situation that its foil never enjoys.

Hype is the go-to power-play unit for the Crimson. Hard Work infrequently runs Coach Schafer's power play.

​Power-play goals should be removed in the spirit of comparing likes to likes.

Suddenly, the production of the Vesey-Kerfoot-Criscuolo line takes upon a different appearance. The Crimson Hype's 15 contributed goals count seven power-play goals and one empty-net marker to its credits. Hype delivered only seven goals on even strength over the ten games of the first semester. The New Brunswick-Illinois-New York freight train benefits from one power-play goal over the ten games through which it raced assemble. Hard Work of the carnelian hue spurred its team with ten goals on even strength on as many games.

Superficial ledger reading sees Hype's production at 1.50 goals per game and Hard Work's rate at 1.10 goals per game. The Crimson's openly professed top line was not 26.7% more productive than was the most prolific line from East Hill. On even strength, when opponents's defensive systems were best drilled, Hard Work predictably outproduced Hype by 30.0%.

Harvard's top line factors when it is easiest. Greater than half of its goals came against either an unprotected net or a weakened opponent. Hype's even-strength production would not rank second on this Cornell team for offensive production.

Injuries plagued the Big Red during the first semester. Six line configurations saw action in three or more games over just ten contests. The Hype of the Bay State contributed on even strength less reliably than another line for the carnelian and white contributed overall. The work of the line of Christian Hilbrich, Jake Weidner, and Matt Buckles, a vintage line with its throwing back to when lines of Ontarians carried Cornell to glory, resulted in five goals in six games. Canadian Club contributed 0.83 goals per game compared to the 0.70 goals per game that Hype produced on even strength.

If one returns to the primary comparison, that between Hype and Hard Work, a few points remain. The top line of Harvard and the most prolific line of Cornell indistinguishably inspired four and three game-winning goals, respectively. The leading goal scorers for Harvard, Jimmy Vesey, and Cornell, Anthony Angello, both scored only one goal in the first semester without their associated linemates on the ice. The glaring reality remains that Hard Work is deadlier for longer stretches of game play than is Hype because few games resemble Cornell's game against Quinnipiac in November.

This argument does no discredit to Vesey, Kerfoot, and Criscuolo. The mere use of their play and style of a play as the bar by which a best line in ECAC Hockey can be determined speaks to their individual and collective skill. However, when faced with real opposition and unfavorable odds, Harvard's very talented and even more hyped top line was not Eastern hockey's Hanzō sword in the first semester.

Media, fans, and opponents (oh, how this writer hopes opponents) can disregard the reality that ECAC Hockey's deadliest line hailed from Upstate New York, not Massachusetts as expected. This contributor doubts that this Cornell team cares much. Like Jeff Kubiak working with his numbersake, Topher Scott, in the offseason to whet the edges of his game so that he was ready to balance his line as the unexpected rapier of ECAC Hockey, Cornell will focus on the grind.

Others can absorb the attention. This team understands that Cornell hockey is not about hype. It is not about individual attention. It is not about the elevation of one set of players above a team. It never has been.

It is about playing an impassioned pastime in a way that brings honor to their University.

Coaches and fans can call it "homecoming, "a bowl game," or, as this writer prefers, Cornell hockey's "home away from home," but one thing is certain: the future of Cornell hockey's hosting large-scale marquee events at Madison Square Garden is quite uncertain. Red Hot Hockey lit up Midtown Manhattan just over two weeks ago as it had in four previous editions. There was a difference. Red Hot Hockey V was the first episode of that famed event that failed to earn a sellout at the Garden.

The crowd was larger than it was for Red Hot Hockey IV. However, unlike in that edition when Boston University Athletics in a face-saving act bought surplus tickets to create a nominal sellout, tickets either remained unsold or the Garden opted for the more accurate accounting of tickets scanned. Either way, the game is the first of the Red Hot Hockey series not recorded as a sellout at the Garden. This comes but a year after Penn Staters failed to deliver on their self-promotion to fill their allotment of tickets (and take some of Cornell's portion, as they boasted beforehand) when the Garden sat only 83% filled on that celebrated Saturday after Thanksgiving.

This writer loves the perennial nature of Cornell hockey in Manhattan after Thanksgiving. The weekends have become a family affair for the contributors of Where Angels Fear to Tread. Until last season, games in Manhattan set Cornell hockey apart, not because it was the only program that hosted them, but because it was the only program whose draw was so great that opponents flocked to see the spectacle and whose alumni were so passionate that they filled the NHL's oldest building.

It was a selling point to recruits. It was a point of pride to Cornellians.

If trends continue, it will remain neither. Appreciating the carousel of opponents that the Frozen Apple allows, there is real risk in what a poor showing at the Frozen Apple 2016 could do to Cornell's future ability to host events at the Garden. New programs are clamoring for the cliché that has become hosting a game in Manhattan. The further that attendance figures dip for the Big Red to levels that other programs can equal, the less special that the program becomes in the world of college hockey.
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It is better to save one event than wantonly to destroy two. Poor attendance at the third edition of the Frozen Apple, an episode that has been announced already but for which the opponent is undisclosed publicly, should trigger very real discussions about retrenching back to Red Hot Hockey alone. It is best to preserve two marquee events.

This contributor set out to determine which opponents may help Cornell do exactly that. In a disclosure of bias, I must state that Wisconsin long has been my preferred challenger for the Frozen Apple. Nevertheless, the data lead where they lead.

The Friars of Little Rhody, the reigning national champions, can they possibly help the Big Red maintain the preeminent status of Cornell University's marquee sporting event? Statistics demand that this analysis considers them, reader. Anecdotal evidence from the 2015 Frozen Four Final bodes well for the chances of Nate Leaman's charges to be a good bet.

Providence College is a school appropriately sized for its diminutive state. In the 2015 Frozen Four, Providence appeared anything but small on the ice and in the stands. The Friar loyalists did draw well in Boston during the Frozen Four. A school of 4,550 people drew equally with the 33,421 current students of Boston University even in the latter's host city. That was unexpected. Boston is a mere 50 miles from Providence. Manhattan is farther by more than 130 miles.

There is only one fair thing to do to determine if Providence should advance as a legitimate candidate for Cornell Athletics's consideration. Travelability removed Omaha as a reasonable contender and elevated RIT. How does the same figure, calculated the same way, affect the value of the Friars as a prospective opponent in the third edition of the Frozen Apple?

​The first gloss when examining Providence's desirability relative to its fans's inclination or aversion to traveling resembles the data for Omaha. Away contests at which Providence played last season experienced a three-percent dip relative to the average attendance at that venue. Are the fans of Dean Blais's and Nate Leaman's skating wariors that similar?

One glaring outlier weekend dooms the travelability calculation for Providence in a way that it did not with Minnesota-Duluth, Omaha, or RIT. Providence played at Ohio State during football season. The Friars had the natural disadvantage of playing at a football school during football season. If one removes that weekend series when the odds were stacked against Providence from drawing well on the road and their fan interest might have been depressed, the Friars gave all other away venues a two-percent boost in attendance when they were hosted than average attendance. Is it fair to include Providence after this?

Omaha was deemed a bad bet and was not given second life. Why should Providence? Another intriguing statistic reveals the actual travelability of Friar fans. Six of the 11 regular-season games that Providence played on the East Coast outdrew average attendance of the host venue, sometimes by as much as 40%. Readers must remember that Providence's fanbase only has grown since Nate Leaman lifted the NCAA trophy above his head at TD Garden. These figures assessing travelability were produced before that pivotal moment. Providence fans do travel well and travel particularly well on the East Coast.

Providence carries with it the natural storyline that it will be at most one year removed from a national title. This is instantly marketable to even passerby fans and Cornell alumni with only mild interest in college hockey. For the Lynah Faithful, Cornell Athletics could turn to the many classic and unforgettable meetings that the Friars and Red shared when the former played in ECAC Hockey. The personal angle between Cornell and Union, the program that Leaman built in ECAC Hockey, also exists.

Inviting Providence is an unexpected, but fairly secure, option for Cornell Athletics.

Four programs have survived this cold analysis. Connecticut, Providence, RIT, and Wisconsin are those programs that bear the potential to save Cornell's annual romps at Madison Square Garden as distinct, special moments for college hockey and Cornellians. Unexpected exclusions occurred along the way. The oft-mentioned contenders for invitations to Cornell's event that have not been invited already are Minnesota, Notre Dame, and Wisconsin. Minnesota and Wisconsin come with no amount of inconsiderable risk. Notre Dame is an atrocious bet of the worst order. This shocked this writer.

The Big Ten's basketball-and-hockey doubleheader with its unannounced field for January 2017 makes any program from the Big Ten at least a modest risk. Wisconsin has a sizable alumni base in the greater New York area. Its alumni base is half that of Penn State and equal to that of Michigan. However, the Badgers love hockey consistently with a broader fanbase than the Wolverines and with greater historical longevity than the Nittany Lions. Furthermore, every meeting between the Badgers and Big Red on the ice has left an indelible mark on each program. Every meeting. Each contest has been emotionally charged and historically remembered.

This means that Wisconsin partisans will show up at Madison Square Garden if their team plays Cornell. Cornell Athletics should be focused on staking its claim to Manhattan with another sellout at the Frozen Apple 2016. A good turnout is not satisfactory. Jim Delany, commissioner of the Big Ten, has his finger on the domino that could begin a dangerous cascade for the Red's sell-out hopes. Delany has not announced which of his constituent members will tip off and face off in the second Big Ten doubleheader. Minnesota's and Wisconsin's interests may remain tepid until such an announcement. The inclusion of Cornell's invited program in that event would be disastrous for sell-out hopes.

Minnesota's smaller alumni base in the greater sphere of Manhattan and its less-than-invested attachment to Cornell hockey as an institution makes the invitation of the Golden Gophers a gilded option. Their candidacy is a long-shot consideration. Wisconsin remains a good contender for invitation but because of the ability of Delany to undercut an all-but-guaranteed sellout for a Cornell-Wisconsin match-up at the Frozen Apple 2016, this contributor cannot in good conscience say that Wisconsin is a bet of the safest variety. Wisconsin is an opponent of modest risk at imperiling the Red's event.

Connecticut also falls into this modest-risk category. The University of Connecticut has the alumni numbers. Connecticut is predominantly a basketball school. Had Penn State, an archetypal football school, panned out with a sellout or near-sellout in the Frozen Apple 2014, Connecticut may have been viewed as a safer bet. The Huskies benefit from a proven willingness to travel to even their nominal home games. Their pack would appear at the Garden. Putting faith in them to sell out Madison Square Garden for anything other than basketball for Cornell's benefit seems a modest risk akin to the one presented with the possibility that hockey-loving Wisconsin may need to decide among two marquee events within two months.

The best options are Providence and RIT. Both are hockey schools. Neither has an announced conflicting event at Midtown's Mecca in the near future. Providence will be at most one year removed from a national championship. RIT brings with it the Upstate-coming-to-Downstate narrative. Both programs anecdotally and statistically travel well. Providence College outdrew Boston University at the 2015 Frozen Four Final despite a nearly eight-to-one campus size disadvantage. As for RIT, ask fans at the 2015 NCAA Midwest Regional which team was the home team even 515 miles away from Western New York.

This writer announced his bias early. Wisconsin is his preferred choice.

​The facts disagree. Providence and RIT are much safer bets for selling out the Frozen Apple 2016. Connecticut and Wisconsin are of middling risk. Minnesota is a long-shot, dark horse contender that Cornell Athletics and Minnesota Athletics with skillful marketing may get to work. Faith should be given to the small, hockey-loving schools if the Red really wants a sellout at the third edition of the Frozen Apple.

These are the decisions that should have occurred behind the closed doors of Cornell Athletics. Yes, despite all of this analysis, the reality is that this decision either is closed or nears closing. The Athletic Department has not released officially yet which opponent will face Cornell on November 26, 2016. These are the programs that should have been considered.

Cornell Athletics over the last few season has made some suspect decisions. Fans, alumni, Lynah Faithful, and this writer cannot be certain that those with the authority to make such decisions considered reasonable metrics or any metrics at all when deciding which programs to target for one of the Red's handful of marquee games during the season. As unsettling as some of the decisions of the Athletic Department can be, for better or worse, it makes the decisions that influence the collegiate careers of the student-athletes whom we have the privilege of supporting.

This writer's list of four reasonable options and a non-awful dark horse candidate is the best assortment of options under a totality-of-the-circumstances approach for garnering a sellout. Providence and RIT as top contenders is very surprising. Lou Lamoriello's separatist faction probably slightly edges the Tigers of Upstate. Cornell likely can put more faith in the Friars to carry valuable pairwise points. Passerby interest from Cornell University's alumni from Downstate may be greater if Cornell Athletics leverages successfully Providence's status as a recent national champion. Either program would bring throngs of fans. The Corner Crew of RIT promises probably the most boisterous holiday weekend in the Big Apple for all fans involved.

If we as loyal alumni want these events to survive and thrive, the malfeasance or nonfeasance of administrators should have no bearing on whether we attend these annual events at Manhattan as "reunions," "homes away from home," or burgeoning family traditions. The success of Red Hot Hockey and the Frozen Apple depends on us living with what may be a poor choice from Cornell Athletics and pushing for better choices in the future. This piece provides a bar for judging whether those in charge made a wise or poor decision. No matter the opponent, this contributor's family and he will be at the Frozen Apple 2016 barring any unforeseen circumstances to support proudly the carnelian and white.

That is unless the opponent is Arizona State. That'd be absolutely dreadful.

The problem with ties is...wait, is there a problem with ties? The hashtagging hordes resort to unclever quips: #tiesareokay vs. #tiessuck, or whatever pith that faction can muster in the case of the latter. What creates the divide? Satisfaction.

Sometimes you can't get no while other times you don't get what you want, but if you tried, you got what you needed. A rolling stone gathers no moss. In that truism, this writer finds the answer to the great quandary of why ties are sometimes perceived as a problem. A tie may be a problem if it halts forward momentum (don't forget the directionality, it is a vector).

Directionality is key. A tie is good if it halts backward inertia. A tie is bad if it arrests forward inertia.

Satisfaction is too often conflated with finality. Hubris or intellectual dishonesty, based on one's fanbase, either may be the culprit, force many to assume that their team could never be empirically even with [insert despised foe of the week]. Therefore, ties deny these fans finality or closure after the Lynah Salute or whichever version of that gesture one's team pays its fans (or empty seats in the case of Harvard).

This writer is here to tell you that the Red's two ties in its last three outings were satisfying and provided finality. The contributors here pondered this reality while they returned back to their hotel in Manhattan on Saturday night. One of New York's finest inquired about the result of Red Hot Hockey seeing the group decked out entirely in carnelian and white. After receiving the answer, in disdain that only a New Yorker could muster for being equaled by another, the officer sighed at Cornell's failure to win the contest.

Generally, even though ties are academically acceptable to this writer, they are not personally enjoyable. Some ask, why play a game to find out the teams are the same as they began the contest? Even. The Big Red's results in New Haven and New York are important, satisfying, and final.

The Lynah Faithful learned many important things about this team over those weekends. This Cornell team played even with Yale with the national spotlight on that match-up. The carnelian and white accomplished this with a depleted roster and players lining up in their unnatural positions. A reduced Red matched evenly against a program still swaggering from its recent national championship.

Red Hot Hockey, often not a friend to Cornell no matter how good its hockey team is, did not derail these skaters and Gillam. Opportunism and relentlessness put the Red on the board with a two-goal margin. The lead would not last the rest of the contest. However, in Boston University's last five contests, only one program has been able to do what the Red did.

The Terriers have taken to relying on lightning quick outbursts in the third period to avert a loss. Michigan succumbed to a three-goal third period from Boston University. Providence, Nate Leaman's reigning national champion, was the team that survived with a tie. The Friars did something that Cornell never did at the Garden: surrender the lead. Cornell clung to its lead. 

The Big Red additionally showed growth. This hockey team has played in five overtime contests before this weekend. Circumstances tested this team with three penalties in the sudden-death frame. Quinnipiac did not convert on its overtime power play, but its winner was a result of wearing down the Cornellians. Cornell steeled its resolve against Yale and Boston University with two successful penalty kills in overtime. Coach Schafer's team was not denied a point, actual or proverbial, in either contest unlike the contest against the Bobcats when the Red all but handed it to its Connecticut visitors.

The moment that Joon Lee of The Cornell Daily Sun and Coach Schafer highlighted as the turning point of Red Hot Hockey was a pivotal point. Dan Wedman went down to block a blistering shot. He absorbed it on his quadriceps. The shot deflected harmless away from Mitch Gillam and the carnelian net. This contributor thinks that what followed showed better the character of Wedman and this team.

Clearly stunned and sore, Wedman stayed on the ice. The Red did not get a clear. Dan Wedman, obviously favoring one leg, did not miss a movement in tracking the puck or position to block a shooting lane. He did not go for a change. He battled out on the ice for his team. Cornell was never about not getting knocked down. Cornell always has been about getting knocked down and getting back up with more determination. Quinnipiac and Union can block shots. Even Minnesota occasionally blocks shots, but the selflessness of this group is shown in Wedman's determination not even to be out of place in either time or space.

They play Cornell hockey.

That moment brought closure and finality to a contest that may otherwise have carried some quantum of discontentment. Wedman is not the lone standout. Alex Rauter and Teemu Tiitinen are constant harassers of the puck. They are the nemeses of opposing netminders and champions of Corsi. Trevor Yates deserved credit for his unflappable pursuit of a goal at Madison Square Garden, but it was Rauter's and Tiitinen's supporting roles on the plays that would have made even Michael Caine tip his hat. Their flourishes made for an exciting clause to the sentence that Cornell hopes to close this weekend.

A blemish, or smudge on the drafting shift, of the last few contests is that the Red's power play is disorganized. Yes, Anthony Angello's goal against the Terriers was a power-play goal. However, the unit in both the noted ties has been predictable. Opponents have defused easily Cornell's efforts and attempts at set plays. If this becomes a narrative worthy of more discussion, the otherwise optimistic prognosis for this season quickly will return back to the neutral expectations of the preseason.

The carnelian and white has written many words of a sentence this season. Some commentators refer to the Red's results throughout the season as "statements." Cornell has penned merely words. Words do not a statement make until they form a sentence. A sentence requires punctuation. Two games this weekend will provide the parchment onto which Cornell will scrawl its last mark of the first semester of the season.

Greg Carvel, fresh off a contract renewal that hopefully will see him behind the bench of ECAC Hockey's third-most dominant program for several more seasons, marches his Saints into Lynah Rink on Friday. The game should have a feel of a playoff contest. Ideally, both programs are playing for hardware and respect this season.

St. Lawrence narrowly missed winning the regular-season trophy last season. Now, Cornell and St. Lawrence may not care as much as some programs about winning that pre-playoff boondoggle, but both care very much to be in the conversation. The Saints are in form to continue to be in that conversation. Unsurprisingly, Gavin Bayreuther and Kyle Hayton are the focus of much discussion. The defenseman leads his squad in goals and points. Hayton's last outing saw him shut out a Quinnipiac team that has ranked among the most prolific in the country all season and still averages nearly four goals per game.

The series between the carnelian and white, and the scarlet and brown is one of the best. The Saints never can be taken for granted. The Laurentians own an exceedingly rare winning record against the Cornellians in postseason play. This neither should sit easily with nor leave the mind of a Red team. There is a reason why both programs combine for 18 Eastern championships.

Clarkson, well, the Clarkson series always has added spice now that Casey Jones is liege of the Golden Knights. I think they are still upset about the 1970 Frozen Four Final. The Golden Knights may come to Lynah Rink still in search of their first conference win. They would love little more than taking it from the Big Red at Lynah Rink.

Oh, yeah, there is a quote atop this post. Ken Dryden spoke those words about his tie against Boston University. Its sentiments are just as true now. The ties against Yale and Boston University are special for the script that they write about this team. The results satisfied.

Ken Dryden's tie against the Terriers came at Boston Arena on December 30, 1966. A common thread unites it with another tie. Cornell tied Boston University at Madison Square Garden on November 28, 2009. Both seasons ended in playoff glory. The 1966-67 team won the Red's first Whitelaw Cup and Frozen Four. The 2009-10 team grew into ECAC Hockey's all-time most dominant playoff team. Their ties, like the one of this team, were identically 3-3.

This team has one more weekend to decide what its opening statement of the season will be. The sentence does not have an end yet. There is great promise. They have outperformed the expectations of most. A feeble line this weekend erases narratives unwritten.

The sentence does not yet read: "Cornell is good." It may as easily end, "Cornell is good?"

One question remains with one weekend of first-semester play before this Cornell hockey team: How does this sentence end?