This season had high expectations for Cornell hockey. A Frozen Four in the East again. A senior class full of character. Sure, the seniors who graduated left sizeable holes. The small but mighty class of 2015 counted a gold medalist, over 200 goals (231 to be precise), and nine ECAC Hockey Championships. Most pundits expected Cornell to go into a dark age again. Who were the name-brand players who could carry the Lady Rouge into the next era of Cornell hockey? This contributor was not worried. Cornell counts in its senior class strong talent and character with captain Cassandra Poudrier, sparkplug Jess Brown, clutch player Anna Zorn, defensive stalwart Morgan Richardson, versatile Taylor Woods, and heart of the team Stefannie Moak. Add stellar incoming freshmen and great classes in the sophomores and juniors, this team looked poised to surprise some people. This contributor did not expect to be the one surprised.
Cornell began the season with then-undefeated Boston College at Lynah. The two games saw the same result but could not have been more different. The season did not get much better from there. The Red has yet to win a game on its home ice and sits at tenth in the conference in points. But, you may say, each team has played a different number of games. Intrepid reader, you are not wrong. Adjusting this metric is the approach preferred by this contributor. However, the adjusted metric in this case yields the same result: Cornell is earning 0.86 points per game and falls in tenth in the conference. (Few changes yield using this metric, notably with Colgate jumping Dartmouth.) With each team rounding out the remainder of its schedule, Cornell needs to seriously wonder for the first time since 2007 if it will even make the ECAC Hockey playoffs.
Though some may think this to be an exaggeration, with 15 conference games remaining in the season, this is intended to be a wake-up call, not a death knell, on the 2015-16 team. If the season ended today, Cornell would be the second team left out of the ECAC Hockey playoffs, playing its last game of the year in February for the first time since February 17, 2007. There is a mountain to climb if this team wants to keep playing through the end of February and into March, here is what it needs to do in order to make the playoffs.
Cornell began the season with then-undefeated Boston College at Lynah. The two games saw the same result but could not have been more different. The season did not get much better from there. The Red has yet to win a game on its home ice and sits at tenth in the conference in points. But, you may say, each team has played a different number of games. Intrepid reader, you are not wrong. Adjusting this metric is the approach preferred by this contributor. However, the adjusted metric in this case yields the same result: Cornell is earning 0.86 points per game and falls in tenth in the conference. (Few changes yield using this metric, notably with Colgate jumping Dartmouth.) With each team rounding out the remainder of its schedule, Cornell needs to seriously wonder for the first time since 2007 if it will even make the ECAC Hockey playoffs.
Though some may think this to be an exaggeration, with 15 conference games remaining in the season, this is intended to be a wake-up call, not a death knell, on the 2015-16 team. If the season ended today, Cornell would be the second team left out of the ECAC Hockey playoffs, playing its last game of the year in February for the first time since February 17, 2007. There is a mountain to climb if this team wants to keep playing through the end of February and into March, here is what it needs to do in order to make the playoffs.
The Best Case Scenario
For those crying in their soup about standings, take heart. There is yet a scenario in which Cornell manages to not only make the ECAC Hockey playoffs, but get home ice. If Cornell were to win out ALL of its remaining games, it would finish with 36 ECAC Hockey points with a point-per-game rate of 1.63 points per game. If we make the (unsound) assumption that each team finishes with the same rough rate of points per game that they currently have, this would place Cornell second to only Quinnipiac. That’s right. In the rosiest of all scenarios (so unlikely that this writer cringes to even mention it), Cornell could win out all of its remaining 15 regular-season games and come in second in the standings.
One of the many reasons that this is unlikely is that the remaining 15 games include every single opponent in the conference, including opponents that Cornell lost to (Clarkson, RPI, and Quinnipiac), teams that Cornell failed to beat at home (Colgate and Union), and opponents that Cornell has yet to face this season (Harvard, Dartmouth, Yale, and Brown).
Now that the hopeless optimists in the group have been placated, let’s move on to the more sobering statistics, the more likely scenarios.
One of the many reasons that this is unlikely is that the remaining 15 games include every single opponent in the conference, including opponents that Cornell lost to (Clarkson, RPI, and Quinnipiac), teams that Cornell failed to beat at home (Colgate and Union), and opponents that Cornell has yet to face this season (Harvard, Dartmouth, Yale, and Brown).
Now that the hopeless optimists in the group have been placated, let’s move on to the more sobering statistics, the more likely scenarios.
Historical Perspective
This season seems very different than many others by some people who think they understand women’s hockey. That being said, hockey is hockey. Did anyone expect Clarkson to win the National Championship in January of 2014? If you said yes, you probably are being less than truthful. Contributors of Where Angels Fear to Tread made the trek to Hamden that year and even the Clarkson fans did not expect to be there. ECAC Women’s Hockey has been a conference for some period of time but it only took the current composition in 2006-07. Since then, Cornell has only missed the playoffs once: 2007. That is right. Cornell only missed the playoffs in its first year of being with this group of 12 teams. Since then, Cornell has made the playoffs every single year, including being the last team in both 2008 and 2009 before winning its first ECAC Hockey Tournament Championship in 2010.
So the historical statement that would be made if Cornell misses the playoffs should not be lost on true Lynah Faithful. But what about the teams that have made it in over the past 11 years? Many who do statistics like to look at point totals from previous years. This method is flawed, but most statistics require assumptions. So let’s lay the assumptions on the table and run these numbers. The main assumption through this model is that each year, parity is roughly equal. Looking at the data, that assumption doesn’t necessarily hold. Some years have people placed in eighth and ninth at an equal number of points (14 in 2012, 18 in 2011), while other years there are cliffs as big as nine points (notably last year with the last team in at 20 points and the first team out at 11 points).
So, with those flaws laid bare, here are the numbers. Since 2007, the highest number of points a team has had to have to squeak into the last spot is 21. That team was Cornell in 2009. The lowest number of points that a team was able to squeak in with is 14 as Brown edged RPI in tiebreakers in 2012. The average over that time was just under 18, so we will round to 18 out of convenience. If history is an indicator, let’s see where Cornell would have to finish over its last 15 games to make the playoffs in the highest possible year, the lowest possible year, and the average year.
So the historical statement that would be made if Cornell misses the playoffs should not be lost on true Lynah Faithful. But what about the teams that have made it in over the past 11 years? Many who do statistics like to look at point totals from previous years. This method is flawed, but most statistics require assumptions. So let’s lay the assumptions on the table and run these numbers. The main assumption through this model is that each year, parity is roughly equal. Looking at the data, that assumption doesn’t necessarily hold. Some years have people placed in eighth and ninth at an equal number of points (14 in 2012, 18 in 2011), while other years there are cliffs as big as nine points (notably last year with the last team in at 20 points and the first team out at 11 points).
So, with those flaws laid bare, here are the numbers. Since 2007, the highest number of points a team has had to have to squeak into the last spot is 21. That team was Cornell in 2009. The lowest number of points that a team was able to squeak in with is 14 as Brown edged RPI in tiebreakers in 2012. The average over that time was just under 18, so we will round to 18 out of convenience. If history is an indicator, let’s see where Cornell would have to finish over its last 15 games to make the playoffs in the highest possible year, the lowest possible year, and the average year.
Easiest Scenario: 14 points at the end of the regular season
Currently the Big Red has six points. To reach the smallest possible point total in over the last decade, the Lady Rouge would need eight points over its next 15 conference games. That equates to a mere four wins (Or eight ties. Or some combination that results in eight points.). Quite frankly, it seems incredibly unlikely that only 14 points will be needed for the eighth playoff spot when looking at who is directly above Cornell. RPI and Yale, tied for the eighth spot presently, already are halfway to 14 points with Colgate, Clarkson, and St. Lawrence over halfway there.
Average Scenario: 18 points at the end of the regular season
Four more points mean two more wins. The Lady Rouge in this scenario would need six wins over its 15 remaining games. This scenario still does not require the Red to go even 0.500 in the remainder of the season. And let’s be frank. If the Red doesn’t go 0.500 down the stretch, do they deserve to be in the playoffs?
Hardest Scenario: 21 points at the end of the regular season
This scenario would require 15 extra points for the Red. What does that equate to? Exactly a 0.500 record or better. The Red could go, at worst, 7-7-1 in its remaining games in this hypothetical scenario. If we accept that the team needs to perform better in the second half than the first, going 7-7-1 would be an improved conference record but a near identical overall record. (Cornell is 6-6-2 overall and 2-3-2 in conference.)
Modeling This Year
The final way that this contributor looked at the possibilities was using information from this year. In order to get into eighth place, Cornell would need to best both RPI and Yale that are tied in eighth place. If we use the points-per-game model, that puts Cornell at 0.857, and the Engineers and Bulldogs at 0.875 points per game. In order to best that, let’s say that Cornell needs to average 0.900 points per game (if the teams directly above Cornell can so oblige to stay where they are or decrease their productivity). In order to do this, Cornell would need to produce 13.8 points per game for the remainder of the season. If we round this up to 14, that gives Cornell seven wins to get 14 points. This is not a conservative estimate and still means that Cornell fans have to pray to the Hockey Gods that RPI and Yale do not improve their rates.
If we inch the rate of points per game up ever so slightly (to one point per game) that requires the Rouge to get 16 points or a record above 0.500 in the second half of no worse than 8-7-0 or 1-0-14. While Cornell is 4-2-0 in its last three weekends of play, Yale began the new year with a pair of losses to the feline travel partners and RPI went 0-1-1 against Mercyhurst in Erie. Cornell begins its games at Bright-Landry and Thompson this weekend.
The 4-2-0 record may comfort some, but it was a long Winter break before that. Cornell hasn’t taken the ice in almost four full weeks. Will the team that comes out look more like the team that won the Windjammer Classic or the team that couldn’t manage to win in Lynah in the Fall? That’s right, patient readers. Remember, Cornell failed to win a game in Lynah Rink in the Fall 2015 semester. Cornell went 0-1-2 in conference and 0-3-2 overall at home in Lynah Rink. Cornell’s only wins this season have come on the road (particularly at Hobey Baker Rink, Appleton Arena, the Onondaga War Memorial, Mercyhurst Ice Center, and Gutterson Field House). Cornell plays more of its remaining games in the (typically) friendly confines of Lynah Rink. Eight games are scheduled for Lynah while seven games are scheduled for the road.
If we inch the rate of points per game up ever so slightly (to one point per game) that requires the Rouge to get 16 points or a record above 0.500 in the second half of no worse than 8-7-0 or 1-0-14. While Cornell is 4-2-0 in its last three weekends of play, Yale began the new year with a pair of losses to the feline travel partners and RPI went 0-1-1 against Mercyhurst in Erie. Cornell begins its games at Bright-Landry and Thompson this weekend.
The 4-2-0 record may comfort some, but it was a long Winter break before that. Cornell hasn’t taken the ice in almost four full weeks. Will the team that comes out look more like the team that won the Windjammer Classic or the team that couldn’t manage to win in Lynah in the Fall? That’s right, patient readers. Remember, Cornell failed to win a game in Lynah Rink in the Fall 2015 semester. Cornell went 0-1-2 in conference and 0-3-2 overall at home in Lynah Rink. Cornell’s only wins this season have come on the road (particularly at Hobey Baker Rink, Appleton Arena, the Onondaga War Memorial, Mercyhurst Ice Center, and Gutterson Field House). Cornell plays more of its remaining games in the (typically) friendly confines of Lynah Rink. Eight games are scheduled for Lynah while seven games are scheduled for the road.
Expectations vs. Reality
If one is to assume that there is some difference between playing at home and playing on the road, one can use Cornell's records discretely to determine the number of expected points in the remainder of the season. Cornell in the first half of the season averaged 1.00 points per game on the road and 0.67 points per game at home. This would give Cornell 3.50 road points and 5.36 home points. That equates to just under 15 points total for the season. Combining that estimate with Cornell's current standings would put the Red in third, but that assumes that everyone between Cornell and current number two Princeton gets fewer points than does Cornell over that time with Harvard getting three or fewer points, Dartmouth getting four or fewer points, Colgate and the North Country getting six or fewer points, and RPI and Yale getting seven or fewer points. That seems to be asking for a bit much in terms of cosmic luck while also taking Cornell’s fate entirely out of its own hands.
“Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed."
These words of Alexander Pope seem apropos. Cornellians do not lack expectations. Cornellians expect excellence and to be represented with pride in everything that they do. Perhaps the weight of their past successes weighs too heavily atop the shoulders of the 2015-16 team. The Lynah Faithful have come to expect wins from Cornell women’s hockey. Yet, last year, Cornellians accepted proudly the grit and tenacity of their 2014-15 Cornell team who fought valiantly in their loss to Harvard in Potsdam. Hardware is what is expected. Tenacity, grit, and effort are what is required. Regardless of the results.
The time for excuses is over. Cornell women’s hockey will make history this year. This writer hopes it is not one of infamy.
The time for excuses is over. Cornell women’s hockey will make history this year. This writer hopes it is not one of infamy.
“To wish was to hope, and to hope was to expect."
In spite of everything, this writer wishes. Hopes. Expects. And Austenian quotes wielded. Cornell faces Harvard on Friday.
Expectations will begin to become reality at 7:00 pm.
Expectations will begin to become reality at 7:00 pm.
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