The contributors at WAFT cannot agree how each game will go in the 2013 NCAA Tournament. Unsurprisingly, we both pick different teams to be crowned the ultimate national champion. The bracketology that accompanies the Final Four men's basketball tournament is followed zealously. Why should any corner of college hockey stay out of the fun? The national tournament for men's ice hockey is one of the best tournaments in hockey. It showcases the greatness of college hockey.
We have outlined how we think the brackets will shake out, which team will be handed the national championship trophy in Pittsburgh, and defended our selections in the below sections.
Do you agree with our selections? Is one of us right? Where did we go wrong? Let us know, join in on the conversation, and follow along as each game in the series puts us one step closer to crowning a national champion for 2013.
West Regional Semifinals
Yale - Minnesota at Friday, March 29 (2:00 pm)
I think this game will be tight. It was definitely one of the harder games that I had to choose. I do think Keith Allain will get the Bulldogs back to scoring, but I think this game will be high scoring with Minnesota pulling the win out by the end of the game. Admittedly, it is equally likely that the result is a 2-1 final, given that both Yale and Minnesota were shut out of their last game (even if Yale looked like they scored twice…) in their conferences. Yale also has a lag time, not having appeared in the Tournament last year. They have two years of classes not used to this. Hopefully it will be a great game.
Niagara - North Dakota at Friday, March 29 (5:30 pm)
Again, one of the easier games I have chosen. No offense meant to Niagara and the amazing feat it has been to get two Atlantic Hockey Teams in the tournament, but they got one of the hardest teams to play against in the first round in spite of their #3 seed. North Dakota wants this badly and they are one of the best teams in the nation. I do not think this will be a huge blowout of a game, but I do think North Dakota comes out with the win, especially if Minnesota wins earlier in the day.
Northeast Regional Semifinals
Wisconsin - UMass-Lowell at Friday, March 29 (4:30 pm)
Once again, I think a four seed will knock off a one seed. Lowell has done an amazing job this season, winning their first Hockey East Championship, but they have the misfortune of coming up against Wisconsin in the first round. Since their abysmal start, Wisconsin has been terrifying. They are red hot and had to win the WCHA to make the tournament after a loss to Penn State dropped them down. Wisconsin has the history to take a tough game from Lowell. This will be probably the tightest 1 vs 4 game, perhaps even going into overtime, but I think Wisconsin will absolutely pull it out.
Denver - New Hampshire at Friday, March 29 (8:00 pm)
Call this a gut feeling, but I think UNH pulls this out. This is the only game that is a re-match of the year. The other games that have happened before are the Q-Pac/Canisius game from 2011-12, the North Dakota-Niagara game in January 2010, then Miami and Minnesota state in 2004, and Yale-Minnesota in 2002 round out the games in the 21st century. Before that we have two games occurring in the late 90s, Lowell-Wisconsin and St. Cloud-Notre Dame. Only one of these games is a first meeting (Union-BC). Many might say that Denver was embarrassed by the 6-4 UNH victory at Magness Arena in November, but I think New Hampshire pulls this one out again. Both teams have made the NCAA three out of the past four years, but my gut goes with the Wildcats for this one.
Midwest Regional Semifinals
St. Cloud State - Notre Dame at Saturday, March 30 (1:30 pm)
This game was one of the ones I was most certain about the outcome. (Let the wrongness commence!) St. Cloud has some of the same problems as Quinnipiac. They won a share of the regular season by doing well early on but could not close the deal in the stretch. St. Cloud was eliminated by Wisconsin in the semifinal round of the Final Five. Notre Dame on the other hand, won their conference after a tight game with juggernaut Michigan. I think Notre Dame is in the right mindset for this one and pulls it out rather easily.
Minnesota State - Miami at Saturday, March 30 (5:00 pm)
Minnesota State comes in well, with a bit of rest after losing to Wisconsin in the Final Five Quarterfinal. Miami was in a similar situation, being eliminated by rising Michigan in the semifinals of the CCHA Tournament. This is Minnesota State’s second time in the NCAA as a DI team. The last time they were in the Tournament, they had the misfortune of meeting Frozen-Four bound Cornell in the first round. Ten years later, they’re back. While they have been here before, I think that the bright lights will get to them. Miami on the other hand is relatively recently made a run to the Tournament. Since the current format, Miami has made it nine times, eight in the last eight years, which is now the second longest NCAA appearance streak. Every person on the team save for the freshmen have been to this dance and know that it is not just about being there. I think that will give the RedHawks the edge in this one.
East Regional Semifinals
Canisius - Quinnipiac at Saturday, March 30 (5:30 pm)
Yes, Quinnipiac is the number one overall seed. Yes, Canisius is “an Atlantic Hockey team.” Regardless, I think the Griffs pull this one out. Canisius is 8-0-0 in their last games and their goaltender is amazing in net. Scoring has not been an issue recently for Canisius, given that even in their losses, since February 16, they have scored two or more goals. Their last eight wins have seen the Griffins score an average of 4.5 goals per game. The Bobcats have a record of 4-3-1 in their last eight games, average only 3.25 goals, and have had a rough time scoring in a fair amount of them. When it comes to goaltending, which I hit on briefly, Capobianco is a stud. His overall numbers and Hartzell’s don’t seem significantly different. But if you look at them over time, Capobianco is getting better and Hartzell’s numbers are getting worse. In the conference tournament, Capobianco has a save percentage of 0.951 and is in the top ten goaltenders of the country. Hobey Baker Candidate Hartzell is at 0.920, 25th in the country, and behind ECAC goaltenders Grosenick, Borelli, and Iles. On top of that, Capobianco has faced over double the amount of shots in that time. Only one of those goaltenders is in the Tournament.
Union College - Boston College at Saturday, March 30 (9:00 pm)
This game was one of the toughest to call. By an eyelash, I predict Union. They’re hitting their stride at the right time, sweeping Dartmouth, shutting out Yale, and beating a rising Brown team. Not only are they finding a way to score, up until the third period against Brown, Union scored goals in 18 consecutive periods. On top of that, Grosenick has been on fire. He has had the best save percentage in conference tournaments, bar none, at 0.969. His GAA is 1.00 which can be attributed not only to Grosenick but the solid defense on the team. Boston College is no slouch, especially as a defending national championship, but their season has been subpar. Even with Jerry York back, I think the Dutchmen eek this one out, due to solid defense and sheer force of will.
West Regional Final
North Dakota - Minnesota at Saturday, March 30 (4:00 pm)
An NCAA game with a rivalry! Huzzah! My attrition of one seeds keeps going, as I think North Dakota and their current NCAA leading appearance streak (11) shows, they have history of success in the Tournament. I think NoDak pulls this out.
Northeast Regional Final
Wisconsin - New Hampshire at Saturday, March 30 (6:30 pm)
As may seem odd, I have a lot of faith in this Wisconsin team. Call it their similar jerseys, but I think that the Badgers have the edge over New Hampshire. Admittedly New Hampshire has had more rest, but Wisconsin has been playing playoff hockey for longer. They won their championship. UNH has a history of making the Tournament and never winning. I think Wisconsin pulls this one off.
Midwest Regional Final
Miami - Notre Dame at Sunday, March 31 (4:00 pm)
And so the attrition of the one seeds continues. Call this a gut feeling, call this an out-there call, but I think Miami makes the Frozen Four. I think Miami is better suited, with their eight-in-a-row appearances.
East Regional Final
Canisius - Union College at Sunday, March 31 (6:30 pm)
Many could say that Canisius beating 1. Quinnipiac would be the biggest upset of the Tournament. I personally think this game will be the biggest upset of the season. Whether because Union suffers from a hangover of beating what they consider to be a great Boston College team, or because Canisius plays an amazing game with their star goaltender, I feel that Canisius is going to pull this one out, but it will be a tight game.
Frozen Four Semifinals
Canisius - Miami
Call it the bright lights factor or the elation factor, but I think Canisius’s Cinderella Story ends here. The Griffins will put up a hell of a fight, but I think the Red Hawks walk away with the win. Miami has made the Tournament, the Frozen Four, and the National Title Game before and they want it badly. I don’t think Capobianco will be equal to every Miami challenge, but I do think he could very well be the Most Outstanding Player of the Tournament. I predict a tight, low scoring win for Miami.
Wisconsin - North Dakota
WCHA team vs. WCHA team, future B1G team vs. future NCHC team. This game could say an awful lot about history and the future. But North Dakota has been stifled this season in the WCHA Final Five. Wisconsin had to play three games in the X to win. Wisconsin has certainly been playing playoff hockey longer. This is one of the tougher games to choose, but I think Wisconsin pulls this one off with solid goaltending and Zengerle and Kerdiles being able to solve Saunders or Gothberg more than Knight and Kristo are able to solve Rumpel.
National Championship Game
Wisconsin - Miami
Whether I subconsciously chose red teams to get to the National Title Game because I wish Cornell were there, or because I believe solid defensive hockey is going to prevail, I predict Miami to meet Wisconsin in the deciding game. But Wisconsin is a four seed, you may say. When is the last time that a four seed won a national championship??? 1981, Wisconsin defeated Clarkson, Northern Michigan, and Minnesota to win their third national championship. This will be a tight, low-scoring game, with Miami wanting their first championship badly, but I think history prevails and Wisconsin wins number seven.
How the 2013 NCAA Tournament will look:
Yale - Minnesota at Friday, March 29 (2:00 pm)
The national tournament kicks off with a game that I think will be a must-see game. The game has all the trappings of a great game. Yale's Allain and Cornell's Schafer are the only ECAC coaches who have proven to be consistently competitive against WCHA programs. Allain's bulldogs defeated Colorado College and Denver during a swing through the Mountain Timezone. I was very big on Minnesota headed into the 2012-13 season. In my mind, they were the team to beat, the one team that seemed above the rest early in the season. Minnesota did not do much for most of the season to disprove that. However, the Gophers have proven that they may be more gilded than golden. Much has been made about how skilled Wilcox is in fending Minnesota's crease. I don't think goaltending will make the difference. Having said that, if either Malcolm or Wilcox implodes, the high-octane offense of their opponents will make their team pay. This is one of the three hardest games for me to choose and it is one of two of those in the regional semifinals. I could see Yale pulling off the upset against a major WCHA program like it did in 2010 against North Dakota despite Yale's 1-2-0 record against WCHA programs in the national tournament. Ultimately, I think the Gophers will be too much for Yale and sending the Bulldogs heading East with their tails between their legs. The real question is: will Keith Allain give a press conference this time? Minnesota wins.
Niagara - North Dakota at Friday, March 29 (5:30 pm)
A preeminent national powerhouse meets Atlantic Hockey's first at-large bid in Conference history. I have thought that Niagara's statistics have been inflated all season for several reason. They have a very good goaltender in Chubak, but his statistics are elevated by playing very well in the early part of the regular season against opponents typically regarded as less competitive than those from other leagues and in a conference in which programs plan for playoffs runs because at-large bids for the conference (up until this season) were unheard of for Atlantic Hockey. I think Chubak is good, but the real question is how will he stack up against some of the best scorers in the nation in Knight and Kristo in playoff hockey? In Niagara's last outing, Chubak surrendered five goals to eventual Atlantic Hockey Champion, Canisius. He has amassed a 0.912 save percentage during the playoffs. Whether it is fatigue or a lack of comfort playing teams that are playing with a passion to continue their season, Niagara does not seem to have second life in the playoffs. Niagara's situation is exacerbated by the fact that they played no WCHA opponents this season (through no fault of their own, I am sure, but nonetheless a weakness). To the chagrin of Minnesota fans who would like me to predict that a purple-clad Atlantic Hockey team would upset the Gophers's archrival, I predict that North Dakota will prevail. North Dakota wins.
Northeast Regional Semifinals
Wisconsin - UMass-Lowell at Friday, March 29 (4:30 pm)
Some commentators have said that the winner of this game likely could be the ultimate national champion. Both teams are extremely good. Both are very hot and coming off winning their respective conference championships. Wisconsin defeated Colorado College to claim its first Broadmoor Trophy in 15 years. UMass-Lowell became the first non-big four team to win the Hockey East championship. Wisconsin was required to dismantle faster paced teams and systems en route to the Broadmoor. The RiverHawks went through Maine, Providence, and Boston University. None of those teams present challenges that are similar to those that the Badgers will present. Wisconsin was to the WCHA as Cornell is to the ECAC with its defense-first mentality. I do not think Bazin cannot adjust to play teams of different systems over a week. That is foolish. He is a great coach. I do however think that the fact that Denver and New Hampshire are in the bracket with Wisconsin exacerbates matters because preparation for those teams will be very much unlike preparation for the Badgers. I know coaches claim "one game at a time," but if anyway preparation has flipped the page to look at future challenges, I think that Wisconsin is decidedly favored. Last season was UMass-Lowell's first appearance in the national tournament. The RiverHawks played very talented Miami and Union teams. However, playing a team with a history of success in the national tournament and a trophy case full of national championships like Wisconsin raises the stakes. I think that Bazin's achievement of winning the Hockey East championship may have been viewed on some level as an end in itself and I am not sure the RiverHawks will bring the effort that is needed to defeat a Badgers team. Colorado College's Owens mentioned that Wisconsin is exuding confidence in every aspect of its game. I advise against picking against a program with a national pedigree that is feeling buoyed by history. Wisconsin wins.
Denver - New Hampshire at Friday, March 29 (8:00 pm)
I wish that I could make this selection in one word. I am a fan of New Hampshire and I hope on many levels that they become the next program to join "the club" of programs that have national championships. I do not think this is the year for Umile's squad to join those ranks. The Wildcats ran into an elite goaltender in the Hockey East Quarterfinals in the form of Gillies. New Hampshire forced the series to a deciding game three after the Providence Friars took a strangehold of the series in game one. Providence would win the series. I think that Denver may be living on borrowed time with a bench as short as it has. However, the unexpected week off before the WCHA Final Five may be a blessing in disguise as a team that has barely enough players will be well rested. The Pioneers's Olkinuora is among the two best goaltenders I have watched this season. Unsurprisingly, the one game in which he tended the pipes for Denver in the Colorado College playoff series, the Pioneers won. The 'Cats could not beat a hot Providence goaltender, I predict the same fate for them in this semifinal. Denver wins.
Midwest Regional Semifinals
St. Cloud State - Notre Dame at Saturday, March 30 (1:30 pm)
The Huskies have fallen flat since they won the MacNaughton Cup. They managed a sweep of Alaska-Anchorage but have done little to impress since they claimed a share of one of the WCHA's most prized trophies. St. Cloud State is 6-5-0 since mid-February. I am not one to ignore strength of schedule, so it needs to be acknowledged that over that span St. Cloud State split with Minnesota, Colorado College, and Wisconsin. Those are respectable results. Jeff Jackson's Fighting Irish just passed what he believed would be the hardest test of the CCHA post-season: beating Michigan. Both teams are stellar. I think that this is one of the hardest games to predict and I think that it will be one of the hardest games that I project Notre Dame will compete in. The trajectory of Notre Dame seems to be upward and one knows that Jackson knows how to win in the national tournament. I predict a close game, but not a toss-up. Notre Dame wins.
Minnesota State - Miami at Saturday, March 30 (5:00 pm)
I hate picking against coaches whom I respect. I think this match-up forces me to do that. What Hastings has done with the Mavericks in one season is nothing short of astounding. He took a team one season removed from a 0.342 record and has brought it to the national tournament with instilling a sense of pride. The Mavericks do the little things right and believe deeply that they will not be more talented than any of their opponents. Hard work typifies Hastings's team and program. I expect great things out of them when they continue in the reorganized WCHA. Blasi's RedHawks have a roster dotted with 13 freshmen. Miami was embarrassed in CCHA Semifinals when a resurgent Michigan dominated them 6-2. That game saw the RedHawks surrender the greatest number of goals they have this season. I do not think maturity will be the problem in this game. I think that Blasi will have an encore effort after that loss to attempt to right the ship. It is hard to pick against a team that has known great success in the national tournament in recent memory. Miami wins.
East Regional Semifinals
Canisius - Quinnipiac at Saturday, March 30 (5:30 pm)
I think that statistics best demonstrate why I chose the way that I did in this match-up. On paper, this is the match-up of the best team in the nation against the insurgent winner of the Atlantic Hockey championship. I think the game will come down to goaltending. The forwards of neither Canisius nor Quinnipiac are awe-inspiringly talented. I think the distinction is awash between the likes of Gibbons and Langlois. Smith has control of his Golden Griffins and has their minds in the right place focusing on unseating a number one overall seed. Anyone who watched Quinnipiac's ECAC Semifinal game between Brown and the Bobcats can draw their own conclusion about whether Pecknold still has control of his team. The Golden Griffins are 8-0-0 over their last eight games. That winning streak includes Canisius's upsetting of perennial Atlantic Hockey power Air Force in Colorado Springs and dismantling Niagara in the playoffs. Quinnipiac is 4-3-1 over the same span. That streak includes losses to Harvard, Cornell, and Brown with a tie to the Brown Bears. Additionally, as mentioned in a previous post, Quinnipiac on its playoff jog benefited from three questionable goal calls in game three against Cornell going in its favor and two disallowed Yale goals in the consolation game. It has been a long time since the Bobcats have dominated an opponent without question. Some point to the time when it finally obtained the number one national ranking as the inflection point. That seems accurate. The team viewed obtainment of a number one poll spot as a goal in itself. What is apparent is that they are not playing their best hockey in the playoffs. Quinnipiac's Hartzell, a Hobey Baker finalist, has not been in playoff form as he produced only a 0.901 save percentage in the playoffs. He twice dipped below 0.850. Not much has been made of Canisius's Capobianco. I think that will change Saturday night. His playoff save percentage of 0.951 dwarfs that of Hartzell. The Golden Griffin netminder has faced 247 shots in the playoffs. In no game has he faced fewer than 35 shots. These considerations all weigh in favor of Canisius pulling off yet another Atlantic Hockey first-round upset. Canisius wins.
Union College - Boston College at Saturday, March 30 (9:00 pm)
This is the hardest game to choose in the first round. I had Union penciled in as the clear winner until early in the week. Much like the Denver-New Hampshire game, it seems like one name is sufficient for the rationale. The difference between the two series is that I am pretty sure the integral person to the Union College-Boston College game will not be lacing his skates up. It is clear that Boston College is an entirely different team when Jerry York is not behind the bench. Earlier in the week, it was uncertain if Jerry York would lead his team into the weekend or even be at the game on Saturday. Union is clearly the better team if the Eagles do not have that intangible boost that drives Boston College to success. I do not think that Boston College is bound for a repeat national championship and I do think that Union College is as sound as they were last season when they made the Frozen Four (what the Dutchmen lack in individual talent they more than compensate for in dedication and team work). I like this Union team a lot. I am glad that they became the third and final Harkness-influenced program to defend their first Whitelaw Cup. I do not see the Jerry York-led Eagles losing on Saturday to Union. Boston College wins.
West Regional Final
North Dakota - Minnesota at Saturday, March 30 (4:00 pm)
This should look familiar. North Dakota and Minnesota meeting in the West Regional to decide which team will advance to the Frozen Four. It happened last season. I predict a similar result. Not in the way that many will expect. Last season, two-seed Minnesota upset one-seed North Dakota. I predict that second seed, North Dakota will topple the Golden Gophers. Both teams are supremely talented this season. Minnesota took a win and a tie out of North Dakota during the regular season. Rivalries are a volatile thing. The law of averages applies more than ever to such games. I cannot see Lucia's Gophers winning a rematch of last season's West Regional Final. The transitive property is not one that I overvalue in college hockey, but I do think it is telling that the Colorado College Tigers and Howe managed to shut out the Gophers but wrested victory from North Dakota only in overtime after allowing three goals. Minnesota's Wilcox is highly lauded but I think that North Dakota's stable of goaltenders including Saunders can match the best efforts of the Gophers in this high-stakes game. Minnesota has refused to come to terms with North Dakota about an extension of the Minnesota-North Dakota rivalry after B1G-NCHC realignment places the traditional rivals in different conferences. I think that North Dakota gives the Gophers a proper send-off to the heated rivalry. North Dakota wins.
Northeast Regional Final
Wisconsin - Denver at Saturday, March 30 (6:30 pm)
Denver's 2-1 game against Cornell shows that defensively oriented teams can tame the Pioneers's offense. Cornell was very much in that game. Wisconsin can defeat a Denver program that has little depth due to injuries and early departures by grinding them down. The Badgers before they were red hot took a win and a tie out of Gwozdecky's Denver. Wisconsin is afraid of no one. Denver is burdened by the fact that their short bench likely will have caught up with them by the time the regional final arrives. The game will not be a high scoring affair because Olkinuora, if Denver goes with him over Brittain, will ensure such. Wisconsin's style is suited for gritty, low-scoring affairs. The Badgers average making the Frozen Four every other time that they appear in the national tournament. I expect them to break this pattern and make the Frozen Four this season with a close, hard-fought win over the Denver Pioneers. Wisconsin wins.
Midwest Regional Final
Miami - Notre Dame at Sunday, March 31 (4:00 pm)
Much like Denver, I think that the situation for Miami on its roster has it playing on borrowed time when the regional finals arrive. Blasi is a great coach but I believe it will prove too burdensome for even a coach as talented as he to have a roster that freshmen dominate, including both goaltenders, ready to close the deal of making the Frozen Four. Notre Dame's Jackson has a more seasoned roster and is just two season removed from a Frozen-Four appearance. 15 players from the Fighting Irish's last Frozen-Four berth are still on the roster. I think that the experience and familiarity of the Notre Dame roster with games on as big of a stage as this game will be played will tilt the result in favor of the Irish over the more immature RedHawks. Notre Dame did split with Miami over the regular season.The RedHawks gave the golden-domed icers their last loss of the pre-national tournament season. Miami's 6-2 loss to Michigan showed more than vulnerabilities. Mental fatigue on a very young roster had begun to take its toll. Notre Dame will reappear in the Frozen Four. Notre Dame wins.
East Regional Final
Canisius - Boston College at Sunday, March 31 (6:30 pm)
Everyone loves a Cinderella Story. The media relishes in it. Fans whose teams have been eliminated join the bandwagon. As good as I think Canisius is and as much as I think the Golden Griffins will surprise those who have not seen them, I do not think they can best the Eagles in a regional-final clash. It is not Boston College's year for a repeat. But, I do not think that Canisius will be able to endure the inevitable drop-off after the emotional high of eliminating the first overall seed. I do not think an Atlantic Hockey team will return to the Frozen Four for the first time since 2010. Boston College wins.
Frozen Four Semifinals
Boston College - Notre Dame
Spectators in Pittsburgh will get to witness an installment of one of college hockey's better rivalries when "the Holy War on ice" faces off at the Consol Energy Center in the national semifinals. I believe firmly that this season will not see the first repeat national champion since Denver achieved that feat in 2004 and 2005. The road ends for Boston College in the Frozen Four. Boston College is a team that relies on its offense to win games. Last season, Parker Milner was lights out against most opponents but his play has been wavering as the Eagles headed into the 2013 playoffs. His form has not returned to the level it was during the 2013 national-championship run. I think that he will be able to elevate his game for the first two games of the national tournament. I think that in the game against Notre Dame fate catches up with Boston College. It will be difficult for the Eagles to outcompete the Union Dutchmen in the regional semifinal and very difficult for Milner to outduel Grosenick, but I think Boston College emerges out of that series victorious because the Eagles's forwards will more than compensate for mediocre netminding. I think that no such overcompensation will occur in the national semifinal. Notre Dame's Summerhays has performed better than Boston College's Milner putting up a 0.917 and 0.912 save percentage respectively. Neither statistic is impressive, but Notre Dame is the better team. Notre Dame's defense is more stifling so even forwards as skilled as those of Boston College will be limited in opportunities with Jackson's holistic approach to the game. The Eagles will have little room to maneuver and the Fighting Irish will advance to the national championship game. Notre Dame wins.
Wisconsin - North Dakota
Wisconsin has not been to the Frozen Four since 2010. North Dakota has not been since 2011. The North Dakota team that last made the Frozen Four was the one that many in the greater Grand Forks community thought would win North Dakota's eighth national championship. The Wolverines of Michigan had other plans in mind as junior goaltender Shawn Hunwick made a 1-0 lead count until Michigan tallied an empty-net goal to end North Dakota's run. The 2012-13 North Dakota team may not be as talented as Hakstol's 2010-11 squad, but history has shown that the teams that are expected to achieve the highest accolades often fall just short. Ask Michigan fans about their 1997 or 2012 teams. The former of which was bookended by two less talented national championship teams. No four seed has won the national tournament since the current format was adopted in 2003. In fact, the last four seed to win was Wisconsin under a previous format in 1981. I think the Badgers's triumphant run into the playoffs will end in Pittsburgh when North Dakota snaps their run in spectacular fashion. I think that the skill of Hakstol and his assistants will have deciphered and exploited the emerging flaws in the systems and efforts of Eaves's Wisconsin teams. Dave Hakstol is one of the best coaches and strategists in college hockey. I am sure that it will show. Late-season national tournament pushes from key players like Knight and Kristo will overwhelm Wisconsin when it matters most while North Dakota's defensive core including senior Joe Gleason will be equal to the task of ensuring that North Dakota gains its first berth to the national championship game in 2005. North Dakota wins.
National Championship Game
North Dakota - Notre Dame
Rules are made to be broken, right? I have the general rule that it is unwise to pick against a college hockey program with history and pride that motivates it. Few college hockey programs have a richer tradition or a more passionate fanbase than North Dakota. It is dangerous to choose against such a program in my opinion. I am led to do it nonetheless. A championship match-up between North Dakota and Notre Dame would represent the second appearance for both Dave Hakstol and Jeff Jackson in the national championship game with their current programs. The game will be a toss-up where I can see either team winning. As an extension of my generally outlined rule, I find it unwise to predict that a new team will join "the club," but on an instinct, I think Notre Dame will win. This predicted game and the scheduled game between St. Cloud State and Notre Dame were the hardest on Notre Dame's route to the national championship for me to decide. Neither Notre Dame nor North Dakota has put up gaudy numbers in all categories since the mid-February. North Dakota has averaged nearly four goals per game. Notre Dame averages one complete goal less per game. The Fighting Irish allow almost exactly one goal less per game (0.70). Both teams have been in a dead heat for scoring differential since college teams have been gearing up for the playoffs. Notre Dame's power play has been clicking at a rate one percent higher than the power-play unit of North Dakota. Surprising, in light of systems, is that over the same span North Dakota has killed off 83% of opponents's power-play opportunities while Notre Dame has killed off fewer than 80%. That statistic bodes poorly for the Fighting Irish who rely upon their power-play unit to generate 26.9% of the goals that they have scored. North Dakota is less penalized. The statistics bear out that North Dakota likely would be the favored team in a match-up that is relatively close. I still find myself favoring Notre Dame as the victor despite the statistical evidence.
If this championship game occurs, I love the idea of a pairing off of Anders Lee, Jeff Costello, and T. J. Tynan against Corban Knight, Danny Kristo, and Rocco Grimaldi. The work of offensively minded defensemen like North Dakota's John Gleason (who is one of my favorite non-Cornell players) and Sam Calabrese would make the game a spectacle that all in Pittsburgh and nationwide would enjoy. I admire the talent and strategy of both Jackson and Hakstol. Both would have their teams ready for a national title game well worth remembering. The deciding factor that I think tilts the balance in Notre Dame's favor is that I do not see Jackson appearing in another national title game and leaving empty-handed. I think the game will develop as a low-scoring, gritty game of attrition much like the 2011 Frozen Four clash between Michigan and North Dakota. The teams will be evenly matched and the game close. If forced to choose, I would predict that Notre Dame wins its first national championship rather than North Dakota claiming its eighth. Notre Dame wins.
The way that I predict the 2013 NCAA Tournament will develop: